基于VAR模型的天津市PM<sub>2.5</sub>与其他大气污染物的关系

沈凯娟; 高广阔

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-991X.2018.04.048

基于VAR模型的天津市PM_2.5与其他大气污染物的关系

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-991X.2018.04.048

上海理工大学管理学院,上海 200093

详细信息

作者简介:
沈凯娟(1994—),女,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为统计学

中图分类号: X51
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- 文章访问数: 625
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2018-03-04
- 刊出日期: 2018-07-20

Study on the relationship between PM_2.5 and other air pollutants in Tianjin based on VAR model

Business School, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai 200093, China

摘要

摘要: 近年来我国多个地区遭遇严重重污染天气过程,极大影响了人们的身体健康与生活环境。在研究重污染天气的过程中,PM_2.5与其他大气污染物的关联度成了学术界研究重点。基于向量自回归模型,综合运用单位根检验、AR特征根检验、广义脉冲响应函数以及方差分解法分析了天津市2014年1月1日—2016年12月31日包含PM_2.5在内的空气质量相关数据;研究PM_2.5与其影响因素的动态关系,及其他大气污染物对PM_2.5的影响作用。结果表明:PM_2.5与其他大气污染物之间所构成的空气质量系统模型是稳定的,且SO₂、NO₂与CO浓度的增加短期内会引起PM_2.5浓度的增加,治理SO₂与NO₂对PM_2.5的影响较大;O₃浓度的增加对PM_2.5有抑制作用。因此,建议天津市将调整产业结构,加强对SO₂的治理放在首位。
- VAR模型 /
- PM_2.5 /
- 重污染天气过程 /
- 大气污染物
Abstract: In recent years, severe haze weathers have hit many areas of China, which has greatly affected people’s health and life. In the study on the haze problem, the relationship between PM_2.5 and other air pollutants has become the focus of academic researches. Therefore, based on the vector autoregressive model and in combination with unit root test, AR eigenvalue test, generalized impulse response function and variance decomposition method, the air quality related data including PM_2.5 in Tianjin from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2016 were analyzed. Also the dynamic relationship between PM_2.5 and its influencing factors was analyzed and the impact of other atmospheric pollutants on PM_2.5 studied. The result shows the model of air quality system formed by PM_2.5 and other air pollutants is stable. The increase of SO₂, NO₂ and CO concentration will cause the increase of PM_2.5 concentration in a short time; the effect of SO₂ and NO₂ on PM_2.5 is more significant; the increase of O₃ concentration has an inhibitory effect on PM_2.5. Therefore, suggestions on adjusting the industrial structure and strengthening the governance of SO₂ were put forward as the primary solutions for the government of Tianjin to manage haze pollution.
- VAR model /
- PM_2.5 /
- heavy pollution weather process /
- atmospheric pollutant

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参考文献(21)

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