Assessment of the contribution of factors affecting ozone pollution in Tianjin based on meteorological composite index
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摘要:
利用2017—2021年天津市近地面O3日最大8 h滑动平均浓度(O3_8 h)浓度和同时期气象数据,基于统计学方法构建天津市本地化O3气象条件综合指数,并据此评估气象和人为影响因素对O3浓度和超标天数的贡献情况。研究表明:基于日最高气温、海平面气压、平均风速、相对湿度、边界层厚度、短波辐射通量可以较好地建立O3气象条件综合指数,与实况O3浓度相关系数可以达到0.86(P<0.01),高于任何单一气象要素对O3浓度的影响;基于该指数评估,2017—2021年天津市O3浓度呈先升后降趋势,2021年较2017年下降15.9%,其中人为因素贡献了O3浓度下降的10.0%,气象因素贡献了5.9%。O3超标天数变化与浓度变化趋势一致,且超标天数中以轻度污染为主。2018年轻度污染占比高是导致该年O3超标天数最高的主要原因;2021较2017年天津市O3超标天数减少了36 d,其中气象条件导致的超标天数减少20 d,人为因素导致的超标天数减少16 d。对导致不同污染等级超标天数变化的影响要素分析显示,气象条件是导致O3轻度污染天数减少的主要因素,而人为管控措施的贡献主要体现在中度污染天数的减少。
Abstract:By using the near-ground ozone concentrations and simultaneous meteorological data in Tianjin from 2017 to 2021, a localized ozone meteorological composite index was constructed based on statistical methods, and the contributions of meteorological and anthropogenic factors to changes in ozone concentration and exceedance days were assessed. The results showed that the ozone meteorological composite index could be well established based on the daily maximum temperature, sea level pressure, average wind speed, relative humidity, boundary layer thickness and short-wave radiation flux, and the correlation coefficient with the actual ozone concentration could reach 0.86 (P<0.01), which was higher than any single meteorological factor. Based on the evaluation of this index, the ozone concentration in Tianjin showed an increasing trend at first and then a decreasing trend from 2017 to 2021, with a decrease of 15.9% in 2021 compared to 2017. Anthropogenic factors played a dominant role in the concentration change, contributing 10.0%, while meteorological factors contributed 5.9%. The change in the number of exceedance days in the five years was consistent with the trend of concentration change, and mild pollution was the main type of exceedance days. The high proportion of mild pollution in 2018 was the main reason for the highest number of ozone exceedance days in that year. The number of ozone exceedance days in Tianjin decreased by 36 days from 2017 to 2021, with meteorological conditions contributing to a decrease of 20 days and anthropogenic factors contributing to a decrease of 16 days. The analysis of the factors affecting changes in the number of exceedance days at different pollution levels showed that meteorological conditions were the main factor leading to a decrease in mild pollution days, while the contribution of anthropogenic control measures was mainly reflected in the reduction of moderate pollution weather.
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Key words:
- meteorological composite index /
- ozone /
- meteorological factors /
- anthropogenic factors /
- Tianjin
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表 1 2017—2021年天津市O3等级占比
Table 1. Annual ozone quality rating ratio in Tianjin in 2017-2021
% 年份 优 良 轻度污染 中度污染 重度污染 2017 51.23 28.77 15.07 4.93 0.00 2018 53.70 22.19 17.81 5.75 0.55 2019 54.52 23.29 14.52 7.12 0.55 2020 59.56 23.77 13.93 2.46 0.27 2021 59.45 30.41 9.32 0.55 0.27 表 2 O3浓度与气象要素的相关性
Table 2. Correlation between ozone concentration and meteorological factors
日平均相对湿度 日最高气温 日平均风速 日平均海平面气压 日平均边界层厚度 日短波辐射通量 0.10 0.82** 0.11 −0.72** 0.47** 0.71** 注:**表示在0.01水平上相关性显著。 表 3 天津市O3气象条件综合指数初步权重系数
Table 3. Preliminary weight coefficient of the ozone meteorological composite index in Tianjin
区间 日平均相对湿度 日最高气温 日平均风速 日平均海平面气压 日平均边界层厚度 日短波辐射通量 范围/% 权重系数 范围/℃ 权重系数 范围/(m/s) 权重系数 范围/hPa 权重系数 范围/m 权重系数 范围/(W/m2) 权重系数 1 <34 0.808 <5.0 0.462 <1.5 0.787 <1 004.2 1.598 <254.2 0.475 <102.5 0.456 2 34~41 0.923 5.0~8.5 0.499 1.5~1.8 0.852 1 004.2~1 006.6 1.598 254.2~327.4 0.6 102.5~118.0 0.483 3 41~46 0.937 8.5~13.3 0.543 1.8~2 0.959 1 006.6~1 009.4 1.385 327.4~391.6 0.753 118.0~133.9 0.623 4 46~52 1.026 13.3~17.2 0.716 2~2.2 0.97 1 009.4~1 013.1 1.247 391.6~448.1 0.908 133.9~157.2 0.712 5 52~58 0.991 17.2~21.0 0.82 2.2~2.4 1.069 1 013.1~1 017.0 1.013 448.1~503.3 1.029 157.2~181.4 0.907 6 58~64 0.958 21.0~25.1 0.983 2.4~2.6 1.073 1 017.0~1 019.9 0.811 503.3~562.2 1.107 181.4~208.6 1.05 7 64~69 1.181 25.1~28.0 1.207 2.6~2.9 1.075 1 019.9~1 022.6 0.712 562.2~633.2 1.179 208.6~236.9 1.219 8 69~74 1.116 28.0~30.3 1.355 2.9~3.3 1.149 1 022.6~1 025.1 0.631 633.2~724.2 1.21 208.6~262.7 1.425 9 74~79 1.102 30.3~32 1.529 3.3~3.8 1.106 1 025.1~1 028.4 0.531 724.2~874.1 1.385 262.7~290.5 1.477 10 ≥79 0.993 ≥32 1.798 ≥3.8 0.999 ≥1 028.4 0.518 ≥874.1 1.318 ≥290.5 1.585 -
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