基于气象条件综合指数的天津市臭氧污染影响因素贡献评估

李敏姣; 温娟; 尹立峰; 张雷波; 孙蕊; 冯真真; 李怀明

doi:10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20230544

基于气象条件综合指数的天津市臭氧污染影响因素贡献评估

doi: 10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20230544

李敏姣^{1, 2,},
温娟¹,
尹立峰¹,
张雷波^{1, 2},
孙蕊¹,
冯真真¹,
李怀明^{1, 2, ,}

1.
天津市生态环境科学研究院
2.
天津环科环境规划科技发展有限公司

基金项目: 中国工程院院地合作项目（2020C0-0002）；天津市科技计划项目（20YFZCSN01000）

详细信息

作者简介:
李敏姣（1988—），女，高级工程师，硕士，主要从事环境空气质量研究，lmj7908@126.com

通讯作者:
李怀明（1988—），男，硕士，主要从事生态环境大数据挖掘分析研究，lihuaiming@taes.org

中图分类号: X515
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- 文章访问数: 29
- HTML全文浏览量: 30
- PDF下载量: 32
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2023-07-24
- 录用日期: 2024-01-17
- 修回日期: 2023-09-20

Assessment of the contribution of factors affecting ozone pollution in Tianjin based on meteorological composite index

LI Minjiao^{1, 2
,},
WEN Juan¹,
YIN Lifeng¹,
ZHANG Leibo^{1, 2},
SUN Rui¹,
FENG Zhenzhen¹,
LI Huaiming^{1, 2
, ,}

1.
Tianjin Academy of Eco-Environmental Sciences
2.
Tianjin Environmental Sciences and Planning Technology Development Co., Ltd.

摘要

摘要:
利用2017—2021年天津市近地面O₃日最大8 h滑动平均浓度（O₃_8 h）浓度和同时期气象数据，基于统计学方法构建天津市本地化O₃气象条件综合指数，并据此评估气象和人为影响因素对O₃浓度和超标天数的贡献情况。研究表明：基于日最高气温、海平面气压、平均风速、相对湿度、边界层厚度、短波辐射通量可以较好地建立O₃气象条件综合指数，与实况O₃浓度相关系数可以达到0.86（P<0.01），高于任何单一气象要素对O₃浓度的影响；基于该指数评估，2017—2021年天津市O₃浓度呈先升后降趋势，2021年较2017年下降15.9%，其中人为因素贡献了O₃浓度下降的10.0%，气象因素贡献了5.9%。O₃超标天数变化与浓度变化趋势一致，且超标天数中以轻度污染为主。2018年轻度污染占比高是导致该年O₃超标天数最高的主要原因；2021较2017年天津市O₃超标天数减少了36 d，其中气象条件导致的超标天数减少20 d，人为因素导致的超标天数减少16 d。对导致不同污染等级超标天数变化的影响要素分析显示，气象条件是导致O₃轻度污染天数减少的主要因素，而人为管控措施的贡献主要体现在中度污染天数的减少。
- 气象条件指数 /
- O₃ /
- 气象因素 /
- 人为影响贡献 /
- 天津市
Abstract:
By using the near-ground ozone concentrations and simultaneous meteorological data in Tianjin from 2017 to 2021, a localized ozone meteorological composite index was constructed based on statistical methods, and the contributions of meteorological and anthropogenic factors to changes in ozone concentration and exceedance days were assessed. The results showed that the ozone meteorological composite index could be well established based on the daily maximum temperature, sea level pressure, average wind speed, relative humidity, boundary layer thickness and short-wave radiation flux, and the correlation coefficient with the actual ozone concentration could reach 0.86 (P<0.01), which was higher than any single meteorological factor. Based on the evaluation of this index, the ozone concentration in Tianjin showed an increasing trend at first and then a decreasing trend from 2017 to 2021, with a decrease of 15.9% in 2021 compared to 2017. Anthropogenic factors played a dominant role in the concentration change, contributing 10.0%, while meteorological factors contributed 5.9%. The change in the number of exceedance days in the five years was consistent with the trend of concentration change, and mild pollution was the main type of exceedance days. The high proportion of mild pollution in 2018 was the main reason for the highest number of ozone exceedance days in that year. The number of ozone exceedance days in Tianjin decreased by 36 days from 2017 to 2021, with meteorological conditions contributing to a decrease of 20 days and anthropogenic factors contributing to a decrease of 16 days. The analysis of the factors affecting changes in the number of exceedance days at different pollution levels showed that meteorological conditions were the main factor leading to a decrease in mild pollution days, while the contribution of anthropogenic control measures was mainly reflected in the reduction of moderate pollution weather.
- meteorological composite index /
- ozone /
- meteorological factors /
- anthropogenic factors /
- Tianjin

HTML全文

图 1 2017—2021年天津市O₃浓度月际变化

Figure 1. Monthly variation of ozone concentration in Tianjin from 2017 to 2021

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 2017—2021年天津市O₃逐月超标天数及占比

Figure 2. Monthly variation of ozone exceedance days and proportion in Tianjin in 2017-2021

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图 3 2017—2021年天津市O₃浓度与同时段气象要素分布

注：深色的点表示O₃浓度大于160 μg/m³。

Figure 3. Ozone concentration and simultaneous meteorological factor distribution in Tianjin in 2017-2021

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图 4 2017—2021年O₃气象条件综合指数和实测O₃浓度的关系

Figure 4. Relationship between the ozone meteorological composite index and the ozone concentrations in 2017-2021

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图 5 利用O₃气象条件综合指数反演的2015—2016年O₃浓度模拟值与实测值对比

Figure 5. Comparison of the ozone simulated concentrations inverted by O₃ meteorological composite index and real concentrations in 2015-2016

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图 6 2017—2021年天津市O₃浓度和超标天数逐年变化影响评估

Figure 6. Impact assessment on the annual change of ozone concentrations and exceedance days from 2017 to 2021 in Tianjin

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图 7 2021年天津市O₃轻度、中度和重度污染天数较2017年变化影响评估

Figure 7. Impact assessment on the change of exceedance days of different levels from 2021 to 2017 in Tianjin

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表 1 2017—2021年天津市O₃等级占比

Table 1. Annual ozone quality rating ratio in Tianjin in 2017-2021 %　

年份	优	良	轻度污染	中度污染	重度污染
2017	51.23	28.77	15.07	4.93	0.00
2018	53.70	22.19	17.81	5.75	0.55
2019	54.52	23.29	14.52	7.12	0.55
2020	59.56	23.77	13.93	2.46	0.27
2021	59.45	30.41	9.32	0.55	0.27

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表 2 O₃浓度与气象要素的相关性

Table 2. Correlation between ozone concentration and meteorological factors

日平均相对湿度	日最高气温	日平均风速	日平均海平面气压	日平均边界层厚度	日短波辐射通量
0.10	0.82^**	0.11	−0.72^**	0.47^**	0.71^**
注：**表示在0.01水平上相关性显著。

下载: 导出CSV

表 3 天津市O₃气象条件综合指数初步权重系数

Table 3. Preliminary weight coefficient of the ozone meteorological composite index in Tianjin

区间	日平均相对湿度		日最高气温		日平均风速		日平均海平面气压		日平均边界层厚度		日短波辐射通量
区间	范围/%	权重系数	范围/℃	权重系数	范围/(m/s)	权重系数	范围/hPa	权重系数	范围/m	权重系数	范围/(W/m²)	权重系数
1	<34	0.808	<5.0	0.462	<1.5	0.787	<1 004.2	1.598	<254.2	0.475	<102.5	0.456
2	34~41	0.923	5.0~8.5	0.499	1.5~1.8	0.852	1 004.2~1 006.6	1.598	254.2~327.4	0.6	102.5~118.0	0.483
3	41~46	0.937	8.5~13.3	0.543	1.8~2	0.959	1 006.6~1 009.4	1.385	327.4~391.6	0.753	118.0~133.9	0.623
4	46~52	1.026	13.3~17.2	0.716	2~2.2	0.97	1 009.4~1 013.1	1.247	391.6~448.1	0.908	133.9~157.2	0.712
5	52~58	0.991	17.2~21.0	0.82	2.2~2.4	1.069	1 013.1~1 017.0	1.013	448.1~503.3	1.029	157.2~181.4	0.907
6	58~64	0.958	21.0~25.1	0.983	2.4~2.6	1.073	1 017.0~1 019.9	0.811	503.3~562.2	1.107	181.4~208.6	1.05
7	64~69	1.181	25.1~28.0	1.207	2.6~2.9	1.075	1 019.9~1 022.6	0.712	562.2~633.2	1.179	208.6~236.9	1.219
8	69~74	1.116	28.0~30.3	1.355	2.9~3.3	1.149	1 022.6~1 025.1	0.631	633.2~724.2	1.21	208.6~262.7	1.425
9	74~79	1.102	30.3~32	1.529	3.3~3.8	1.106	1 025.1~1 028.4	0.531	724.2~874.1	1.385	262.7~290.5	1.477
10	≥79	0.993	≥32	1.798	≥3.8	0.999	≥1 028.4	0.518	≥874.1	1.318	≥290.5	1.585

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