长三角一体化区域开发强度与生境质量协调状况及演化规律探析

张乐勤; 王雷

doi:10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20220305

长三角一体化区域开发强度与生境质量协调状况及演化规律探析

doi: 10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20220305

张乐勤^{1, 2,},
王雷^{1, 2}

1.
池州学院自然资源遥感应用研究中心
2.
池州市生态资源产业化研究中心

基金项目: 2021年度安徽省社会科学创新发展研究项目（2021ZD006）

详细信息

作者简介:
张乐勤(1965—），男，教授，研究方向为资源生态与绿色发展，zhangleqing@sohu.com

中图分类号: X52
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2022-04-02

Analysis of the coordination status and evolution law of development intensity and habitat quality in the Integrated Region of the Yangtze River Delta

ZHANG Leqin^{1, 2
,},
WANG Lei^{1, 2}

1.
Application Research Center of Remote Sensing for Natural Resources, Chizhou University
2.
Application Research Center of Industrialization of Ecological Resources in Chizhou

摘要

摘要:
探索长三角一体化区域开发强度与生境质量协调状况及演化规律，对制定或修改其生态绿色一体化及高质量发展的规制方略具有重要意义。基于Landsat卫星遥感土地利用解译及统计数据，运用In VEST模型及主成分分析综合评价方法，测算长三角一体化区域2005—2020年生境质量和开发强度指数；采用耦合协调模型，对二者间协调状况进行考察；采用曲线回归分析方法，探索二者间的演化规律。结果表明：长三角一体化区域开发强度指数由2005年的0.383 3攀升至2020年的0.783 3，生境质量由2005年的0.504 9降至0.493 7；二者间协调度由2005年的0.663 3攀升至2020年的0.788 6，多年均值为0.734 7，处于中度协调状态；二者间呈现开口向上的二次抛物线演化关系，“十四五”期间，其轨迹仍处于抛物线左半支，开发强度与生境质量矛盾将进一步加剧，生态绿色一体化与高质量发展将面临较大挑战。
- 生境质量 /
- 开发强度 /
- 协调度 /
- 演化规律 /
- In VEST模型 /
- 长三角一体化区域
Abstract:
Exploring the coordination status and evolution law of development intensity and habitat quality in the integrated region of the Yangtze River Delta has important enlightenment significance for formulating or revising the regulation strategy of ecological green integration and high-quality development. Based on Landsat satellite remote sensing land use, the data were interpreted and counted. By using In VEST model and principal component analysis comprehensive evaluation method, the habitat quality and development intensity in the integrated region of the Yangtze River Delta from 2005 to 2020 were calculated. The coupling coordination model was used to investigate the coordination between them. The evolution law between them was explored by curve regression analysis. The results showed as follows: The development intensity index of the integrated region of the Yangtze River Delta increased from 0.383 3 in 2005 to 0.783 3 in 2020, and the habitat quality index decreased from 0.504 9 in 2005 to 0.493 7. The coordination degree between the two increased from 0.663 3 in 2005 to 0.788 6 in 2020, and the multi-year average was 0.734 7, which was in a moderate coordination state. The relationship between them was a quadratic parabola with the opening upward. During the 14th Five-year Plan period, its trajectory was still in the left half of the parabola. The contradiction between development intensity and habitat quality would be further intensified. Therefore, ecological green integration and high-quality development would face great challenges.
- habitat quality /
- development intensity /
- coordination degree /
- evolution law /
- In VEST model /
- Integrated Region of the Yangtze River Delta

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图 1 生境质量空间分布

Figure 1. Spatial distribution of habitat quality

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 2005—2020年长三角一体化区域经济增长与开发强度变化趋势

Figure 2. Change trend of regional economic growth and development intensity in the integrated region of the Yangtze River Delta from 2005 to 2020

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 2005—2020年长三角一体化区域开发强度与生境质量间耦合协调状况

Figure 3. Coupling and coordination between development intensity and habitat quality in the integrated region of the Yangtze River Delta from 2005 to 2020

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 耦合协调状态判别标准

Table 1. Assessment criteria of coupling coordination state

$ {C_{D - Q}} $	耦合协调状态	$ {C_{D - Q}} $	耦合协调状态
0~0.1	极度失调	0.5~0.6	勉强协调
0.1~0.2	严重失调	0.6~0.7	低度协调
0.2~0.3	中度失调	0.7~0.8	中度协调
0.3~0.4	低度失调	0.8~0.9	良好协调
0.4~0.5	濒临失调	0.9~≤1.0	高度协调

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 长三角一体化区域不同时间的生境质量

Table 2. Habitat quality at different time in the integrated region of the Yangtze River Delta

年份	生境质量最小值	生境质量最大值	生境质量状况		标准差
年份	生境质量最小值	生境质量最大值	生境质量均值	等级	标准差
2005	0	1	0.504 9	一般	0.339 6
2010	0	1	0.501 4	一般	0.341 6
2015	0	1	0.497 6	一般	0.344 4
2018	0	1	0.494 1	一般	0.349 6
2020	0	1	0.493 7	一般	0.350 2

下载: 导出CSV

表 3 开发强度评价指标数据

Table 3. Development intensity evaluation index data

年份	建设用地面积占比/%	人口密度/ （人/km²）	经济密度/ (万元/km²)	单位面积投资强度/（万元/km²）
2005	9.55	564.37	1 288.29	576.88
2010	10.40	600.28	2 770.37	1442.27
2015	11.44	613.70	4 458.27	2864.53
2018	13.32	627.43	5 887.84	3633.47
2020	13.42	654.86	6 804.21	4037.24

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表 4 开发强度指数( Q ) 与生境质量 ( D )拟合结果

Table 4. Fitting results of development intensity index (Q) and habitat quality (D)

拟合类型	模型表达式	R²	F	Sig值
线性函数	$ Q = a + bD $	0.991	325.413	0.000
二次函数	$ Q = a + bD + c{D^2} $	0.999	773.995	0.001
指数函数	$ Q = a{e^{bD}} $	0.991	342.716	0.000
对数函数	$ Q = a + b\ln D $	0.998	1557.882	0.000
幂函数	$ Q = a{D^b} $	0.998	1479.388	0.000
逆函数	$ Q = a + b/D $	0.986	214.908	0.001
注：$ Q $为因变量；$ D $为自变量；$ a $为常数；$ b $、$ c $为回归系数。

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