Study on temporal and spatial changes of environmental regulation intensity in China
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摘要:
环境规制是实现环境质量改善的必然要求，是提升环境保护与经济发展协调性的重要手段，环境规制强度测算是后续展开相关研究的基础。选取9个环境规制强度测度指标，构建环境规制指标体系，采用因子分析方法测算环境规制强度，从时间趋势和空间格局2个方面展开分析。时间维度上，测算了全国层面2011—2019年环境规制强度，提取出规制效果、正式环境规制、环保意识3个公共因子，可以看出，正式环境规制因子和规制效果因子存在交叉变化现象，环保意识因子变动需要时间跨度较大，我国环境规制整体上处于稳定态势且具有轻微波动性。空间维度上，测算了我国30个省（区、市）的环境规制强度，并对其进行聚类分析，得到了环境规制强度等级，表明我国环境规制强度呈现东高西低的空间格局但区域差异性在缩小。最后，从减排投入与管控等正式环境规制与环境规制效果之间的滞后问题、东西部地区的不平衡性、非正式环境规制的重要性等方面展开分析，提出加大环境治理投入与落实、优化产业结构及重视公众环保意识培养是提高我国环境规制强度、促进区域均衡发展的重要措施。
Abstract:Environmental regulation is an inevitable requirement to improve environmental quality and an important means to enhance the coordination between environmental protection and economic development. The calculation of the intensity of environmental regulation is the basis for subsequent related research. Nine environmental regulation intensity measurement indicators were selected to construct the environmental regulation index system. The environmental regulation intensity was calculated by the factor analysis method. The analysis was carried out from two aspects of time trend and spatial pattern. In terms of time dimension, the intensity of environmental regulation at the national level from 2011 to 2019 was measured, and three public factors were extracted, including regulation effect, formal environmental regulation and environmental awareness. There were cross changes between formal environmental regulation factors and regulation effect factors. The change of environmental awareness factors needed a large time span, and China's environmental regulation was stable and slightly fluctuated as a whole. In terms of spatial dimension, the environmental regulation intensity of 30 provinces (autonomous regions and cities) in China was measured, and the level of environmental regulation intensity was obtained by cluster analysis. The environmental regulation intensity in China showed a spatial pattern of high in the east and low in the west, but the regional difference was narrowing. Finally, the lag between formal environmental regulation and environmental regulation effect, such as emission-reduction investment and control, the imbalance between eastern and western regions, and the importance of informal environmental regulation were analyzed. Some suggestions were proposed, including increasing investment and implementation of environmental governance, optimizing industrial structure and paying attention to the cultivation of public environmental awareness, to improve the intensity of environmental regulation and promote balanced regional development.
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Key words:
- environmental regulation /
- factor analysis /
- time trend /
- spatial pattern
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表 1 环境规制强度指标体系
Table 1. Indicator system of environmental regulation intensity
目标层 准则层 指标层 指标名称 数据选取 单位 与环境规制强度关系 环境
规制
强度正式环境规制 环境污染治理投资 环境污染治理投资占GDP比例 % ＋ 排污费/环境保护税 排污费/环境保护税占GDP比例 % ＋ 非正式环境规制 环境信访 万人环境信访件数 件/万人 ＋ 环保意识 居民受教育程度 大专以上学历人口占总人口的比例 % ＋ 年龄结构 15岁以下人口占比 % ＋ 收入水平 人均可支配收入 元/人 ＋ 环境规制
效果二氧化硫排放量 单位工业增加值二氧化硫排放量 t/万元 － 烟粉尘排放量 单位工业增加值烟粉尘排放量 t/万元 － 工业废水排放量 单位工业增加值工业废水排放量 t/万元 － 注：＋表示该指标与环境规制强度呈正相关，－表示该指标与环境规制强度呈负相关。 
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表 2 总方差解释
Table 2. Total variance interpretation
因子 初始特征值 提取载荷平方和 旋转载荷平方和 总计 方差贡献率/% 累计百分比/% 总计 方差贡献率/% 累计百分比/% 总计 方差贡献率/% 累计百分比/% 1 3.961 44.012 44.012 3.961 44.012 44.012 2.909 32.327 32.327 2 2.491 27.683 71.695 2.491 27.683 71.695 2.865 31.835 64.162 3 1.693 18.815 90.511 1.693 18.815 90.511 2.371 26.349 90.511 4 0.458 5.092 95.603 5 0.224 2.490 98.093 6 0.170 1.887 99.980 7 0.000 0.000 100.000 8 0.000 0.000 100.000 9 0.000 0.000 100.000
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表 3 成分矩阵
Table 3. Composition matrix
指标 因子 1 2 3 工业二氧化硫排放量 0.947 0.078 0.265 工业烟粉尘排放量 0.946 0.065 0.264 工业废水排放量 0.937 0.076 0.264 环境污染治理投资 0.380 0.789 −0.205 排污费/环境保护税 0.038 0.956 0.213 环境信访 −0.360 0.806 0.286 居民收入水平 −0.597 −0.732 −0.020 年龄结构 0.292 0.102 0.934 受教育程度 −0.292 −0.102 −0.934
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表 4 2011—2019年KMO检验及Bartlett球形度检验结果
Table 4. KMO inspection and Bartlett sphericity inspection results from 2011 to 2019
年份 KMO检验 Bartlett检验 年份 KMO检验 Bartlett检验 2011 0.654 118.026 2016 0.512 129.953 2012 0.673 123.900 2017 0.613 112.788 2013 0.677 124.583 2018 0.502 118.684 2014 0.551 134.537 2019 0.535 124.258 2015 0.608 121.849
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表 5 2011年、2015年、2019年总方差解释
Table 5. Explanation of total variance in 2011, 2015 and 2019
% 因子 2011年方差
贡献率2015年方差
贡献率2019年方差
贡献率初始值 旋转后 初始值 旋转后 初始值 旋转后 1 44.59 36.13 44.37 31.41 45.42 33.88 2 26.38 25.40 26.07 29.70 24.52 28.54 3 14.04 23.48 15.51 24.84 16.04 23.56 合计 85.01 85.01 85.95 85.95 85.98 85.98
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表 6 2011—2019各省（区、市）环境规制强度聚类结果
Table 6. Clustering results of environmental regulation intensity in various provinces from 2011 to 2019
分类 省（区、市） 高 北京、天津、上海、江苏、浙江、广东 中 中高 山东、河南、福建 中中 海南、湖北、重庆、辽宁 中低 河北、吉林、黑龙江、安徽、江西、湖南、广西、四川、云南、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏 低 内蒙古、山西、贵州、新疆
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表 7 2011—2019各省环境规制强度分阶段聚类结果
Table 7. Phased clustering results of environmental regulation intensity in various provinces from 2011 to 2019
分类 阶段1 阶段2 阶段3 高 北京、天津、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、广东 北京、天津、上海、江苏、浙江、广东 北京、上海、江苏、浙江、广东 中 中高 重庆、黑龙江、安徽、江西、湖南、四川、
云南、陕西辽宁、江西、河南、云南、陕西、宁夏 天津、福建、山东、河南、湖北、重庆 中中 吉林、湖北、广西、海南 黑龙江、安徽、山东、湖北、湖南、广西、
海南、四川安徽、河北、山西、辽宁、江西、海南 中低 山东、甘肃、青海、宁夏 福建、重庆、吉林、甘肃、青海 吉林、黑龙江、湖南、广西、云南、四川、
陕西、青海低 辽宁、河北、山西、内蒙古、河南、
贵州、新疆河北、山西、内蒙古、贵州、新疆 内蒙古、贵州、甘肃、宁夏、新疆
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