Influencing factors and scenario analysis of China's CO2 emission of energy consumption
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摘要:
针对我国2030年碳达峰要求，立足当前经济和能源需求快速发展的现状，选取2000—2020年时间序列数据，采用Tapio脱钩模型，定量分析中国能源消费CO2排放量与经济增长的脱钩状况；建立扩展的STIRPAT模型，探讨中国能源消费CO2排放的影响因素；运用情景分析法对基准情景（S0）、产业结构优化情景（S1）、能源结构优化情景（S2）、多要素优化情景（S3）4种情景下的CO2排放量进行了预测。结果表明：中国能源消费CO2排放量与经济增长之间的脱钩状态总体以弱脱钩为主。人口规模、能源消费结构、第二产业占比、城镇化率、人均GDP、第三产业占比、碳排放强度每变动1%时，分别引起能源消费CO2排放量的2.857%、0.879%、0.836%、0.623%、(0.221+0.011ln A1)%、0.241%、0.132%的变动。基准情景下中国在2030年之前不能实现碳达峰，产业结构优化情景和能源结构优化情景下在2030年实现碳达峰，峰值分别为110.90亿和109.18亿t，多要素优化情景下可以在2030年之前实现碳达峰，峰值为105.03亿t。
Abstract:In view of China's action plan for peak carbon dioxide emission before 2030 and the current rapid development of economic and energy demand, based on the time series data from 2000 to 2020, the Tapio decoupling model was used to quantitatively analyze the decoupling status between CO2 emission of energy consumption and economic growth in China. The expanded STIRPAT model was established, the influencing factors on CO2 emission of energy consumption were analyzed, and the scenario analysis was used to predict CO2 emission of China's energy consumption in the future under four different scenarios: baseline scenario (S0), industrial structure optimization scenario (S1), energy structure optimization scenario (S2) and multi-factor optimization scenario (S3). The results showed that: The decoupling between CO2 emission of energy consumption and economic growth was generally dominated by weak decoupling. It was found that for 1% change in population, energy consumption structure, proportion of the secondary industry, urbanization level, per-capita GDP, proportion of the tertiary industry, and carbon emissions intensity, there was 2.857%, 0.879%, 0.836%, 0.623%, (0.221+0.011ln A1)%, 0.241%, and 0.132% change in CO2 emission, respectively. Under the baseline scenario, the carbon dioxide peak could not be achieved before 2030. Under the industrial structure optimization scenario and the energy structure optimization scenario, China would achieve the peak carbon dioxide emission in 2030, with peaks of 11.090 billion tons and 10.918 billion tons, respectively. Under the multi-factor optimization scenario, the carbon dioxide peak could be achieved before 2030, and the peak would be 10.503 billion tons.
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Key words:
- energy consumption /
- CO2 emission /
- decoupling effect /
- influencing factors /
- trend prediction
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图 1 2000—2020年中国能源消费量和能源消费所产生的CO2排放量变化
Figure 1. Changes in China's energy consumption and CO2 emission of energy consumption from 2000 to 2020
图 2 不同情景下2021—2060年中国能源消费CO2排放量
Figure 2. CO2 emissions from China's energy consumption under different scenarios in 2021-2060
表 1 模型中各变量情况说明
Table 1. Description of each variable in the model
项目 定义 单位 CO2排放量（I） 能源消费所产生的CO2
排放总量亿t 人口要素（P） 人口规模（P1） 年末总人口 万人 城镇化率(P2) 城镇人口占总人口的比例 % 富裕度要素（A） 人均GDP（A1） GDP与年末
总人口的比值元/人 第二产业占比（A2） 第二产业增加值占GDP的比例 % 第三产业占比（A3） 第三产业增加值占GDP 的比例 % 技术要素（T） 碳排放强度（T1） 单位GDP产生的CO2排放量 t/万元 能源消费结构（T2） 煤炭消费量占能源消费
总量的比例% 
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表 2 2000—2020年中国能源消费CO2排放量与经济增长的脱钩关系
Table 2. Decoupling relationship between CO2 emission of China's energy consumption and economic growth from 2000 to 2020
年份 (It−It−1) /It−1 (GDPt−GDPt−1) /
GDPt−1e 脱钩关系 2000—2001 0.046 0.083 0.554 弱脱钩 2001—2002 0.094 0.091 1.027 增长连结 2002—2003 0.176 0.100 1.750 扩张型负脱钩 2003—2004 0.166 0.101 1.645 扩张型负脱钩 2004—2005 0.143 0.114 1.256 扩张型负脱钩 2005—2006 0.095 0.127 0.749 弱脱钩 2006—2007 0.086 0.142 0.603 弱脱钩 2007—2008 0.018 0.097 0.184 弱脱钩 2008—2009 0.047 0.094 0.505 弱脱钩 2009—2010 0.057 0.106 0.532 弱脱钩 2010—2011 0.084 0.096 0.884 增长连结 2011—2012 0.022 0.079 0.277 弱脱钩 2012—2013 0.028 0.078 0.359 弱脱钩 2013—2014 0.012 0.074 0.160 弱脱钩 2014—2015 0.001 0.070 0.013 强脱钩 2015—2016 0.002 0.068 0.032 弱脱钩 2016—2017 0.020 0.069 0.288 弱脱钩 2017—2018 0.020 0.068 0.294 弱脱钩 2018—2019 0.020 0.059 0.336 弱脱钩 2019—2020 0.012 0.023 0.502 弱脱钩 2000—2020 1.982 4.282 0.463 弱脱钩
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表 3 岭回归估计结果
Table 3. Estimated results by Ridge regression
变量 系数 标准误差 标准系数 t统计值 常数 −43.001 2.152 0.000 −19.979 ln P1 2.857 0.144 0.276 19.873 ln P2 0.623 0.027 0.307 22.815 ln A1 0.221 0.009 0.314 24.690 (ln A1)2 0.011 0.000 0.301 24.124 ln A2 0.836 0.135 0.173 6.213 ln A3 0.241 0.072 0.071 3.328 ln T1 0.132 0.047 0.084 2.776 ln T2 0.879 0.137 0.190 6.421 R2 0.990 F 155.399 Sig F 0.000
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表 4 模型中各要素的情景参数设定
Table 4. Scenario parameter setting of factors affecting CO2 emission in the model
% 要素 变化率 2021—
2030年2031—
2040年2041—
2050年2051—
2060年人口规模 中 0.30 0.00 −0.10 −0.15 城镇化率 中 1.20 0.80 0.50 0.20 人均GDP 中 7.00 5.00 3.00 2.00 第二产业占比 中 −2.50 −2.00 −1.50 −1.00 高 −3.00 −2.50 −2.00 −1.50 第三产业占比 中 2.00 1.00 0.50 0.20 高 2.00 1.20 0.60 0.50 碳排放强度 中 −2.50 −2.00 −1.50 −1.00 高 −3.50 −2.50 −2.00 −1.50 能源消费结构 中 −2.00 −1.00 −0.60 −0.40 高 −2.50 −1.80 −1.30 −1.00
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