Research progress on the life cycle impact assessment methods and their localization in China
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摘要:
为推动我国生命周期影响评价方法的构建，采用文献梳理法对生命周期影响评价方法及本地化研究的现状与未来发展方向进行分析。首先回顾了生命周期评价的起源与发展，探讨了生命周期评价在我国取得的进展与存在的不足；其次对生命周期影响评价理论与方法进行了介绍，并利用文献计量学方法分析了我国学者在生命周期评价时所使用的方法，结果显示77%的研究均采用国外的影响评价方法；最后梳理了我国生命周期影响评价方法的本地化研究进展，分析了现阶段生命周期影响评价方法的3点不足，包括所选取的指标及基准值亟须更新，模型系统性和完整性需要加强，模型深入研究有待展开，并提出要探索构建适合我国国情的完整全面的生命周期影响评价方法以及相应的参数基准值，从而提高我国生命周期评价结果的真实性、准确性，为环境政策制定以及相关产业发展提供决策支持。
Abstract:In order to promote the construction of life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) methods in China, the current situation and future development direction of LCIA methods and their localization research were analyzed by the literature review. Firstly, the origin and development of life cycle assessment (LCA) were reviewed, and the progress and shortcomings of LCA in China were discussed. Secondly, the theories and methods of LCIA were introduced, and the impact assessment methods used by Chinese scholars in LCA were analyzed using the bibliometric method. The results showed that 77% of the studies adopted foreign impact assessment methods. Finally, the localization research progress of LCIA methods in China were combed, and three deficiencies of LCIA methods at this stage were found, namely, the need to update the selected indicators and benchmark values, the need to strengthen the systematicness and integrity of the model, and the need to carry out the in-depth research of the model. It was proposed that complete and comprehensive LCIA methods and corresponding parameter benchmark values suitable for China's national conditions should be explored and built, so as to improve the authenticity and accuracy of China's LCA results and provide decision support for China's environmental policy-making and related industrial development.
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图 1 以生命周期评价为关键词的各年份发表文献数量
Figure 1. Number of published literatures in each year with the key words of life cycle assessment
图 3 我国学者使用的生命周期影响评价方法分类
Figure 3. Classification chart of life cycle impact assessment methods used by Chinese scholars
表 1 生命周期影响评价指标介绍
Table 1. Introduction of life cycle impact assessment indicators
影响类别 影响路径 评价模型 气候变化 CO2等温室气体排放会增加大气对辐射的吸收，引起气温升高并带来短期和长期气候变化问题 短期：全球变暖潜值GWP100。
长期：全球温度变化潜力GTP100[17]细颗粒物 PM2.5排放到空气中会被人体吸入，时间越久其在体内积聚越多，从而造成人体健康风险 USEtox模型[18] 水短缺 家庭用水短缺会使人们摄入低质量不卫生的水，导致腹泻等传染病，影响人体健康；农业用水短缺会使农业与渔业产量减少，造成因粮食供应不足，进而导致人体营养不良 因果链模型[19-22] 土地利用 土地利用变化通过改变土壤性质和植被覆盖率对物种与生态系统造成影响，进而影响生物多样性 潜在物种损失模型[23-24] 人类毒性 产品的化学物质排放到环境中，通过空气、食物等途径对人类健康（癌症和非癌症）造成影响 USEtox模型[25-27] 生态毒性 产品的化学物质排放到环境中，通过物种摄入及与其他物种相互作用，对生态系统造成损害 USEtox模型[28-29] 陆地酸化 硫氧化物、氮氧化物等物质排放到空气中并反应生成酸化或氧化还原物质，沉积到陆地或植被表面，最终进入土壤，造成陆地系统的酸化 中点法：陆地酸化潜力模型[30]。
终点法：陆地生态系统损害模型[31]富营养化
（淡水）限制性营养物（如无机磷和氮化合物等）过量排放到水体中，导致浮游植物生长，溶解氧浓度降低，进而造成淡水的富营养化 中点法：淡水富营养化潜力[32]（以磷当量计算）。
终点法：磷对淡水生态系统的损害[32]富营养化
（海水）限制性营养物（如无机磷和氮化合物等）过量排放到水体中，导致浮游植物生长，溶解氧浓度降低，进而造成海水的富营养化 中点法：海水富营养化潜力[33]（以氮当量计算）。
终点法：氮对海水生态系统的损害[34]矿产资源 由于人类活动造成在技术领域利用矿产资源（铜、石膏、沙等）为人类提供价值的潜力损失 损耗法[35-36]、未来努力法[37-40]、热力学核算法[41-43]、供应风险法[44-46] 土壤质量 由于人类活动造成土地利用变化，使得土壤物理、化学、生物性质发生改变 土壤有机碳模型[47]、土壤侵蚀模型[48]、生物生产力模型[49] 
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