基于ARIMA模型的环渤海典型城市生活垃圾产量预测研究

张万里; 郑永浩; 邢万丽; 李润东

doi:10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20210496

基于ARIMA模型的环渤海典型城市生活垃圾产量预测研究

doi: 10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20210496

沈阳航空航天大学能源与环境学院

基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目（2019YFC1903901）

详细信息

作者简介:
张万里（1988—），男，教授，博士，主要从事固体废物污染控制与资源化利用研究，zhangwanli@sau.edu.cn

中图分类号: X705
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-09-10
- 录用日期: 2022-01-07
- 网络出版日期: 2022-06-07

Prediction of municipal solid waste production of typical cities around Bohai Region based on ARIMA model

School of Energy and Environment, Shenyang Aerospace University

摘要

摘要:
随着环渤海地区社会经济的快速发展，人口大幅增加，生活垃圾产量逐年递增，其造成的污染对城市发展和环境以及市民生活产生重大影响，准确预测生活垃圾产量对其后续处理与处置至关重要。对2005—2019年环渤海10个典型城市（天津、大连、营口、盘锦、锦州、葫芦岛、滨州、潍坊、东营、烟台）生活垃圾产量现状进行分析，并通过MATLAB软件建立差分自回归移动平均（ARIMA）模型对2020—2024年城市生活垃圾产量进行预测。结果表明：2020—2024年，环渤海10个典型城市生活垃圾产量增长幅度和速度各不相同，但总体来看生活垃圾产量均呈增长趋势，与2005—2019年城市生活垃圾产量呈较为一致的增长趋势；2024年，天津、大连、营口、盘锦、锦州、葫芦岛、滨州、潍坊、东营、烟台10个典型城市生活垃圾产量分别为365.16万、278.65万、62.73万、30.34万、120.05万、49.81万、51.02万、81.41万、88.76万和137.68万t/a。
- 城市生活垃圾 /
- ARIMA模型 /
- 产量预测
Abstract:
With the rapid social and economic development around Bohai Region and the significant increase of population, the municipal solid waste (MSW) production has increased year by year, and the pollution caused by it has a significant impacts on the urban development, the environment and the life citizens' lives. Therefore, an accurate prediction of MSW production is very important for subsequent treatment and disposal. Based on this, the current situation of MSW production in ten typical cities around Bohai Sea from 2005 to 2019 was analyzed, and the ARIMA model was established by MATLAB to predict the MSW production in 2020-2024. The prediction results showed that from 2020 to 2024, the growth range and speed of the MSW production of ten typical large cities around Bohai Region were different, but on the whole, the MSW production exhibited an increasing trend from 2020 to 2024, which was consistent with the growth trend of that from 2005 to 2019. The MSW production in the ten cities, Tianjin, Dalian, Yingkou, Panjin, Jinzhou, Huludao, Binzhou, Weifang, Dongying and Yantai in 2024 would be 3 651 600, 2 786 500, 627 300, 303 400, 1 200 500, 498 100, 510 200, 814 100, 887 600 and 1 376 800 tonnes, respectively.
- municipal solid waste /
- ARIMA model /
- production prediction

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图 1 10个城市生活垃圾清运量原始数据时间序列

Figure 1. Time series diagram of original data of MSW production of ten cities

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图 2 10个城市原始序列自相关函数

注：数据序列1是由程序计算得出的相关函数，数据序列2、3、4是自相关系数的界限。下同。

Figure 2. Original sequence autocorrelation diagram of ten cities

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图 3 10个城市差分序列自相关函数

Figure 3. Difference sequence autocorrelation function diagram of ten cities

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图 4 10个城市差分序列偏自相关函数

Figure 4. Difference sequence partial autocorrelation function diagram of ten cities

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图 5 10个城市残差序列QQ图

Figure 5. Residual sequence QQ diagram of ten cities

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图 6 10个城市残差序列自相关函数

Figure 6. Residual sequence autocorrelation function diagram of ten cities

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图 7 10个城市残差序列偏自相关函数

Figure 7. Residual sequence partial autocorrelation function diagram of ten cities

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表 1 2005—2019年环渤海典型大城市生活垃圾清运量

Table 1. MSW production of typical large cities around Bohai Sea from 2005 to 2019 万t/a

年份	天津	大连	营口	盘锦	锦州	葫芦岛	滨州	东营	潍坊	烟台
2005	144.80	73.00	35.00	16.00	37.00	24.00	38.00	28.00	47.00	37.00
2006	155.20	79.00	31.00	16.00	32.00	11.50	38.00	21.00	40.00	36.00
2007	165.00	79.00	36.00	16.00	32.00	7.00	14.00	20.00	28.00	39.00
2008	173.80	79.00	40.00	16.00	28.00	17.00	16.00	20.00	39.00	38.00
2009	188.30	79.00	46.00	16.00	28.00	21.00	14.00	19.77	24.20	44.43
2010	183.70	80.00	40.00	16.00	32.00	21.00	14.60	18.81	29.00	50.91
2011	189.90	93.00	38.00	21.00	29.00	21.00	16.14	18.93	25.71	54.55
2012	185.80	121.00	33.00	22.00	29.00	22.00	23.40	17.70	37.60	61.60
2013	199.90	122.00	33.00	23.00	29.00	22.00	25.52	22.80	43.96	52.76
2014	215.90	121.00	33.00	22.00	31.00	21.00	23.20	20.80	39.60	54.10
2015	240.70	123.00	28.00	21.00	31.00	25.00	28.00	22.30	7.30	119.90
2016	269.00	130.00	39.00	44.00	30.00	18.00	32.60	27.00	55.40	83.70
2017	306.90	173.00	64.00	21.00	56.00	40.00	28.00	35.80	62.20	82.10
2018	294.80	175.00	61.00	23.00	53.00	37.00	31.60	44.70	68.30	90.70
2019	330.20	238.00	62.00	28.00	55.00	46.00	34.80	43.60	85.70	94.90

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表 2 2020—2024年环渤海10个典型城市生活垃圾产量预测

Table 2. Forecast data of MSW production in typical cities around Bohai Sea from 2020 to 2024 万t/a

年份	天津	大连	营口	盘锦	锦州	葫芦岛	滨州	东营	潍坊	烟台
2020	279.16	194.39	66.05	27.61	93.44	43.94	35.71	46.60	81.18	112.87
2021	288.39	266.38	63.47	28.29	82.68	46.57	37.77	56.09	83.08	118.01
2022	297.27	211.72	61.72	28.98	88.93	47.21	43.99	70.63	84.97	123.43
2023	334.43	331.92	62.50	29.66	129.02	48.69	47.67	78.03	86.87	130.53
2024	365.16	278.65	62.73	30.34	120.05	49.81	51.02	81.41	88.76	137.68

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