工业园区经济能源环境耦合的系统动力学研究

张昕; 李艳萍; 赵亚洲; 智静; 杨奕; 陈晨

doi:10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20210476

工业园区经济能源环境耦合的系统动力学研究

doi: 10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20210476

国家环境保护生态工业重点实验室, 中国环境科学研究院

基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目（2019YFC0214401）；内蒙古自治区科技重大专项（2020ZD0013）

详细信息

作者简介:
张昕(1989—)，女，助理研究员，硕士，主要从事清洁生产，工业污染防治研究，zhangxin@craes.org.cn

通讯作者:
李艳萍(1976—)，女，研究员，博士，主要从事清洁生产、工业园区、碳中和等方面研究，leeyp@craes.org.cn

中图分类号: X021
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-09-01
- 网络出版日期: 2022-06-07

Research on the system dynamics of economic-energy-environment (3E) coupling in industrial parks

Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences

摘要

摘要:
工业园区是企业的集聚地，同时也是污染的高发地，工业园区的生态化发展对区域绿色发展意义重大。鉴于工业园区发展过程中的经济、能源、环境多系统之间的复杂关系，构建了经济–能源–环境（3E）系统动力学模型，在模型有效性的基础上以某国家级生态工业园区为案例进行动态仿真。针对案例园区现状，设定了基准、节能减碳、减污、能源结构调整、经济适度增长、加大节能减碳力度6种情景进行趋势预测，并对照HJ 274—2015《国家生态工业示范园区标准》进行绩效评价。结果表明：工业园区3E系统动力学模型可以用于园区生态化发展的趋势预测，通过经济增速、能耗强度、能源结构、减排因子等关键因子的调控，可对其发展情景进行优化，提出一定条件下的园区发展增速与节能减排力度，为园区规划及发展提供科学指导和决策支持。
- 工业园区 /
- 经济–能源–环境(3E)系统 /
- 系统动力学 /
- 趋势预测
Abstract:
Industrial parks are not only the gathering place of enterprises, but also the high incidence of pollution. So the ecologically oriented development of industrial parks is of great significance to regional green development. In view of the complex relationship among economic, energy and environmental systems in the development of industrial parks, a system dynamics model of the economy, energy, and environment (3E) was developed, based on the effectiveness of the model, a national eco-industrial park was taken as an example for dynamic simulation. According to the current situation of the case park, the development trend of the industrial park was predicted by providing six scenarios, i.e. benchmark, energy conservation and carbon reduction, pollution reduction, energy structure adjustment, moderate economic growth and increasing energy conservation and carbon reduction. Then, the prediction results were evaluated according to the Standard for National Demonstration Eco-industrial Parks (HJ 274-2015). The results showed that the 3E system dynamics model of industrial parks could be used to predict the development trend of the parks. Through the regulation of key factors such as economic growth rate, energy consumption intensity, energy structure and emission reduction factors, the development scenarios could be optimized. The park development growth rate and the energy conservation and emission reduction intensity under certain conditions could be put forward, so as to provide scientific guidance and decision support for park planning and development.
- industrial parks /
- economy-energy-environment (3E) system /
- system dynamics /
- trend prediction

HTML全文

图 1 系统因果关系反馈回路

Figure 1. System causality feedback loop

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 工业园区3E系统存量–流量图

Figure 2. Stock and flow diagram of 3E system in industrial parks

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 不同情景下主要参数趋势预测

Figure 3. Trend prediction of main parameters of different scenarios

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 模型主要参数

Table 1. Main parameters of the model

子系统	存量		流量	内生变量	外生变量
经济	工业增加值		工业增加值增长量		工业增加值年均增长率
					废水减排因子
					固碳技术减排比例
能源				综合能耗	单位工业增加值综合能耗
				煤炭（碳）排放	煤炭占比
				天然气（碳）排放	天然气占比
				石油（碳）排放	石油占比
				电力（碳）排放	电力占比
				可再生能源（碳）排放	可再生能源占比
环境	水	废水COD最终排放量	工业废水COD排放量		单位工业增加值COD排放量
		废水COD最终排放量	工业废水COD排放减量
		废水氨氮最终排放量	工业废水氨氮排放量		单位工业增加值氨氮排放量
		废水氨氮最终排放量	工业废水氨氮排放减量
	气			二氧化硫排放量	煤炭二氧化硫排放因子
	气			二氧化碳排放量

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表 2 不同情景参数设定

Table 2. Parameter setting of different scenarios

主要参数变量	情景
主要参数变量	基准情景	节能减碳情景	减污情景	能源结构调整情景	经济适度增长情景	加大节能减碳力度情景
工业增加值年均增长率/%	10	10	10	10	7	7
单位工业增加值综合能耗 5年累计下降率/%	0	14	14	14	14	18
2030年与2019年相比煤炭消费占能源消费总量比例下降率/%	0	0	0	100	100	100
2030年与2019年相比石油消费占能源消费总量比例下降率/%	0	0	0	20	20	20
2030年与2019年相比电力消费占能源消费总量比例下降率/%	0	0	0	0	0	0
2030年与2019年相比天然气消费占能源消费总量比例提高率/%	0	0	0	15	15	15
2030年与2019年相比可再生能源消费占能源消费总量比例提高率/%	0	0	0	18	18	18
废水减排因子	0	0	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05
自2025年开始固碳技术减碳比例/%	0	2	2	2	2	4

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表 3 综合能耗弹性系数

Table 3. Elastic coefficient of comprehensive energy consumption

情景	年份
情景	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
基准情景	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
节能减碳情景	0.67	0.65	0.66	0.65	0.65	0.65	0.65	0.66	0.66	0.66	0.66
减污情景	0.67	0.65	0.66	0.65	0.65	0.65	0.65	0.66	0.66	0.66	0.66
能源结构调整情景	0.67	0.65	0.66	0.65	0.65	0.65	0.65	0.66	0.66	0.66	0.66
经济适度增长情景	0.54	0.50	0.51	0.51	0.50	0.50	0.50	0.51	0.52	0.51	0.52
加大节能减碳力度情景	0.38	0.35	0.35	0.35	0.34	0.34	0.34	0.35	0.36	0.35	0.36

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表 4 单位工业增加值二氧化碳年均削减率

Table 4. Average annual reduction rate of carbon dioxide per unit industrial added value %

情景	年份
情景	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
基准情景	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
节能减碳情景	3.00	3.05	3.00	3.00	3.00	3.33	3.28	3.24	3.22	3.20	3.18
减污情景	3.00	3.05	3.00	3.00	3.00	3.33	3.28	3.24	3.22	3.20	3.18
能源结构调整情景	3.31	3.33	3.28	3.28	3.27	3.60	3.59	3.58	3.57	3.54	3.51
经济适度增长情景	3.42	3.43	3.31	3.31	3.30	3.62	3.61	3.60	3.60	3.55	3.53
加大节能减碳力度情景	4.31	4.28	4.28	4.27	4.27	4.92	4.86	4.82	4.78	4.73	4.69

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表 5 单位工业增加值二氧化碳5年累计下降率

Table 5. Cumulative decline rate of carbon dioxide per unit industrial added value %

情景	年份
情景	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
基准情景	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
节能减碳情景	14.13	15.84	15.76	15.84	15.87	15.85	14.13
减污情景	14.13	15.84	15.76	15.84	15.87	15.85	14.13
能源结构调整情景	15.33	16.99	17.13	17.40	17.65	17.63	15.92
经济适度增长情景	15.42	17.12	17.89	17.56	17.78	17.95	16.01
加大节能减碳力度情景	19.60	22.80	23.01	23.17	23.38	23.38	20.16

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表 6 主要污染物弹性系数

Table 6. Elastic coefficient of main pollutants

情景	年份
情景	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
基准情景	0.99	0.95	0.98	0.96	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97
节能减碳情景	0.99	0.92	0.96	0.94	0.95	0.96	0.95	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.96
减污情景	0.49	0.42	0.49	0.48	0.51	0.54	0.55	0.59	0.61	0.62	0.63
能源结构调整情景	0.49	0.42	0.49	0.48	0.51	0.54	0.55	0.59	0.61	0.62	0.63
经济适度增长情景	0.27	0.18	0.25	0.24	0.26	0.29	0.31	0.36	0.38	0.40	0.42
加大节能减碳力度情景	0.27	0.18	0.25	0.24	0.26	0.29	0.31	0.36	0.38	0.40	0.42

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表 7 单位工业增加值二氧化硫年均削减率

Table 7. Average annual reduction rate of sulfur dioxide per unit industrial added value %

情景	年份
情景	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
基准情景	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
节能减碳情景	3.00	3.05	3.00	3.00	3.00	3.00	3.00	3.00	3.00	3.00	3.00
减污情景	3.00	3.05	3.00	3.00	3.00	3.00	3.00	3.00	3.00	3.00	3.00
能源结构调整情景	9.93	10.24	10.49	10.83	11.21	11.64	14.06	17.06	21.86	25.50	100.00
经济适度增长情景	9.93	10.24	10.49	10.83	11.21	11.64	14.06	17.06	21.86	25.50	100.00
加大节能减碳力度情景	10.86	11.12	11.42	11.75	12.12	12.55	14.95	17.92	22.67	26.27	100.00

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