Dynamic Prediction for Gulf Land Use Based on CA-Markov Model

Taking Bamen bay as the research area, adjustive land use constraint conditions were proposed by using GIS analysis methods, based on the results forecasted by Markov model and from the perspective of land use suitability principle and ecological protection. The CA-Markov model was used to forecast and simulate the land use change tendency of until 2020. The results showed that the land covered by natural vegetation and functional vegetation such as shelterbelt, natural forest and mangrove would increase. On the contrary, the agricultural productive land such as aquaculture bases, orchards and paddy fields would decline. It was indicated that under the sustainable development principles of land use, it would be possible to achieve the goal of coordinated development of society and eco-environment, without any major influence on economic development.