森林火灾遥感监测的敏感指数筛选与组合检测方法

Sensitive index screening and combined detection method for remote sensing monitoring of forest fires

  • 摘要: 快速准确地识别森林火灾对灾害应急响应至关重要,但单一遥感指数的适用性存在显著的场景依赖性。基于2019—2021年中国南方地区98起火灾事件的Landsat 8 OLI和Sentinel-2 MSI多时相遥感数据,以逐月历史统计基线为基础,引入Cohen's d效应量系统评估了10种遥感指数(NDVI、EVI、NBR、NBR2、NBRT、BAI、NDWI、NDMI、MNDWI、BSI)对火灾的敏感度,并构建了改进级联法(TSv2)等多指数组合检测策略。结果表明:NBR2敏感度最高,效应量中位数|d|为6.74,统计显著率91.8%;NDVI与NDWI次之,|d|中位数分别为6.08和5.76。案例尺度分析显示,约68.4%的案例中燃烧指数(NBR2、NBRT)最为敏感,约27.4%的案例中植被/水分指数最为敏感,表明单一指数难以覆盖全部火灾场景。多指数组合评估表明,TSv2在中高阈值条件下表现最优,当阈值T=15.0时真阳性率达79.3%,较任一达标法(47.1%)提高32.2个百分点。TSv2通过任一达标—截断均值偏离度加权的两阶段级联机制,第一阶段以3个最优指数的任一达标法快速捕获明显火灾,第二阶段对边界案例进行精细审查,实现了宽进严出的火灾检测。本研究为多指数协同的火灾遥感监测提供了方法支撑,所构建的级联检测框架对弱信号火灾及其他灾种的遥感监测具有推广价值。

     

    Abstract: Rapid and accurate forest fire detection is critical for disaster emergency response, yet the applicability of individual remote sensing indices is highly scenario-dependent. Using multi-temporal Landsat 8 OLI and Sentinel-2 MSI data from 98 fire events in southern China (2019–2021), this study employed a monthly historical statistical baseline and introduced Cohen's d effect size to systematically evaluate the sensitivity of 10 remote sensing indices (NDVI, EVI, NBR, NBR2, NBRT, BAI, NDWI, NDMI, MNDWI, and BSI) to fires. Multi-index combination strategies were then constructed, including the improved cascaded detection method, Two-Stage version 2 (TSv2). Results show that NBR2 exhibited the highest fire sensitivity, with a median |d| of 6.74 and a statistically significant proportion of 91.8%, followed by NDVI (median |d| = 6.08) and NDWI (median |d| = 5.76). Case-scale analysis revealed that burn indices (NBR2, NBRT) were the most sensitive in approximately 68.4% of cases, whereas vegetation and water indices were the most sensitive in about 27.4% of cases, indicating that a single index could not adequately cover all fire scenarios. Multi-index combination evaluation showed that TSv2 performed the best under moderate and high threshold conditions. At the threshold condition of T = 15.0, TSv2 achieved a true positive rate (TPR) of 79.3%, a 32.2 percentage-point improvement over the single-index OR method (47.1%). TSv2 achieved fire detection with a two-stage cascading mechanism of "OR-based, then trimmed mean deviation weighted", with Stage 1 (OR method on any of the three optimal indices) rapidly capturing pronounced fires and Stage 2 (trimmed mean deviation-weighted method) refining borderline cases, thereby establishing a detection framework that is permissive in entry yet rigorous in screening. This study provides methodological support for multi-index synergistic fire remote sensing monitoring, and the proposed cascaded detection framework has broad application value for remote sensing monitoring of weak-signal fires and other disaster types.

     

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