荒漠化敏感性评估研究进展整合慢性压力与突发事件扰动视角

Research progress on desertification sensitivity assessment: integrating perspectives of chronic stress and sudden disturbance events

  • 摘要: 荒漠化敏感性评估是荒漠化防治和土地管理的重要基础,有效识别荒漠化敏感区域可为精准防治提供科学依据。传统评估框架多聚焦于气候变异、土地利用强度等慢性压力,对特大干旱、极端沙尘暴、林草火灾乃至社会动荡等突发扰动的考量不足。系统回顾了荒漠化敏感性评估的研究进展,首先厘清了荒漠化敏感性评估与荒漠化评估、风险评估及脆弱性评估的概念谱系,揭示了该领域研究方法从静态属性叠加、人地系统耦合到数据与过程驱动的科学范式演进。进而,以MEDALUS模型、通用土地沙化评价模型及压力—状态—响应模型为对象,分析了三类代表性评估体系的应用现状,并重点指出其在突发事件扰动表征方面的共同缺陷。针对上述理论局限,创新性地提出“复合荒漠化敏感性”概念,将长期被忽视的突发扰动维度正式纳入荒漠化敏感性评估体系,在此基础上,进一步构建了“慢性本底+急性扰动”双模块评估框架,设计了复合敏感性指数计算公式,给出了慢性本底指标与急性扰动指标的选取方案,探讨了组合赋权方法、阈值触发机制及机器学习等技术方法的融合路径。该框架旨在为整合慢性压力与急性扰动的荒漠化敏感性评估提供可操作的技术方案。未来的研究应更加注重技术创新、数据整合与动态分析,推动荒漠化敏感性评估从静态诊断向动态预警转型,为实现旱区生态系统的可持续发展提供科学支撑。

     

    Abstract: Desertification sensitivity assessment is a crucial foundation for desertification control and land management. By effectively identifying areas sensitive to desertification, it provides a scientific basis for targeted prevention and control. Traditional assessment frameworks have predominantly focused on chronic pressures such as climate variability and land use intensity, while insufficient attention has been paid to sudden disturbances including extreme droughts, severe sandstorms, forest and grassland fires, and even social unrest. Against the backdrop of intensified climate change and frequent extreme events, this theoretical gap has become increasingly prominent. This paper systematically reviews the research progress in desertification sensitivity assessment. It first clarifies the conceptual spectrum among desertification sensitivity assessment, desertification assessment, risk assessment, and vulnerability assessment, and reveals the evolution of research methods in this field from static attribute superposition, through human-land system coupling, to data- and process-driven scientific paradigms. Subsequently, taking the Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use (MEDALUS) model, the General Land Desertification Evaluation Model (GLDEM), and the PSR model as examples, it analyzes the current application of three representative assessment systems and highlights their common deficiencies in characterizing sudden disturbances. In response to these theoretical limitations, this paper innovatively proposes the concept of "composite desertification sensitivity", explicitly incorporating the long-neglected dimension of sudden disturbances into the framework of desertification sensitivity assessment. On this basis, a dual-module assessment framework of "chronic baseline + acute disturbance" is further constructed. A formula for calculating the composite sensitivity index is designed, along with a selection scheme for chronic baseline indicators and acute disturbance indicators. The integration pathways of combined weighting methods, threshold trigger mechanisms, and machine learning techniques are also discussed. This framework aims to provide an operational technical solution for desertification sensitivity assessment that integrates both chronic pressures and acute disturbances. Future research should place greater emphasis on technological innovation, data integration, and dynamic analysis to promote the transformation of desertification sensitivity assessment from static diagnosis to dynamic early warning, thereby providing scientific support for the sustainable development of arid zone ecosystems.

     

/

返回文章
返回