基于光学-微波遥感时序谐波基线的洪涝灾害分级检测方法

Graded detection method of flood disasters based on harmonic baselines of optical–microwave remote sensing time series

  • 摘要: 快速客观识别洪涝受灾范围、量化损伤强度,是突发事件应急响应与灾损评估的核心需求。针对灾害前后影像直接对比难以剔除季节性波动、阈值主观、单一指数受噪声干扰等不足,提出一种基于光学-微波遥感时序谐波基线的洪涝灾害分级检测方法。以2025年甘肃榆中“8·7”特大洪涝灾害为案例,基于Google Earth Engine调用2019—2025年7月829景Sentinel-2 L2A与649景Sentinel-1 GRD降轨影像,对NDVI、NDWI、NDMI、BSI、MNDWI、VV、SDWI共7个洪涝敏感指数构建统一的三阶谐波回归基线,封装为10 m、56波段GeoTIFF基线产品;灾后实测值通过Z-score标准化偏离度,构造服从卡方分布的联合统计量,叠加洪涝物理先验的方向一致性投票约束,按自由度k=7的卡方临界值划分4级。结果表明:光学-微波统一谐波基线对7个指数均拟合稳定(NDVI、NDWI、VV的均方根误差中位数分别为0.075、0.083、0.039),可作为洪涝异常检测的可靠本底。经物候背景去除后,研究区重度异常面积占比3.21%,沿苑川河主干及支流呈条带状分布,与5个重灾乡镇实际情况高度吻合。建筑、农田、植被三类地表总体精度为86.8%、Kappa系数0.78,较单指数阈值法提升12%~14%。该方法为洪涝等突发性环境灾害的即时遥感监测提供了统计严谨、物理可解释的分级判定框架,可为灾后环境损害评估与生态恢复提供量化支撑。

     

    Abstract: Rapidly and objectively identifying flood-affected areas and quantifying damage severity are core needs of emergency response and post-disaster assessment. To overcome the limitations of pre-/post-event comparisons, including unavoidable seasonal fluctuations, subjective thresholding, and noise interference in single indices, this study proposed a graded flood disaster detection method based on harmonic baselines of optical–microwave remote sensing time series. Taking the August 7, 2025 extreme flood in Yuzhong County, Gansu Province as a case, 829 Sentinel-2 L2A and 649 Sentinel-1 GRD descending scenes from 2019 to July 2025 were retrieved via Google Earth Engine (GEE). Unified third-order harmonic regression baselines were built for seven flood-sensitive indices (NDVI, NDWI, NDMI, BSI, MNDWI, VV, SDWI) and packaged as a 10-m, 56-band GeoTIFF baseline product. The deviation of post-disaster measured values was standardized using Z-score, and a joint statistic χ² = ΣZᵢ² was constructed, which follows a chi-square distribution. The values were then combined with a directional consistency voting constraint based on physical flood priors, and classified into four levels according to critical values of the chi-square distribution with degrees of freedom (k=7). The results showed that the unified optical-microwave harmonic baselines fit all seven indices stably (median RMSE of NDVI, NDWI, VV: 0.075, 0.083, 0.039), thereby serving as reliable background baselines for flood anomaly detection. After phenological background removal, severe anomaly area accounted for 3.21% of the study area, distributed in strips along the mainstream and tributaries of the Yuanchuan River, which was highly consistent with the actual disaster conditions of five severely affected townships. The overall accuracy reached 86.8% with a Kappa coefficient of 0.78 over built-up, cropland, and vegetation areas, representing a 12%-14% improvement over single-index thresholding. This method provides a statistically rigorous and physically interpretable grading discrimination framework for near-real-time remote sensing monitoring of sudden environmental disasters such as floods, offering quantitative support for post-disaster environmental damage assessment and ecological restoration.

     

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