Abstract: With the continuous intensification of global anthropogenic activities and the increasing frequency of cross-regional exchanges, biological invasions have evolved into a global ecological security challenge. Xanthium spinosum L. is widely distributed across many provinces and autonomous regions of China, including Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Xinjiang, and its invasion has caused substantial damage to agricultural and pastoral production. To establish a scientific and effective early-warning system for the invasion risk of X. spinosum, we used principal component analysis to quantify the niche overlap, stability, unfilling, and expansion of X. spinosum, and performed niche equivalence and niche similarity tests. Based on the field occurrence data and climatic environmental variables of X. spinosum, ecological niche models were applied to predict its potential suitable areas in China. The results showed that X. spinosum maintained high niche stability during its invasion in China, accompanied by niche shifts. According to the niche model projections, Yunnan, Hubei, Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu and other regions in China were identified as high-potential suitable areas for X. spinosum, while the already-invaded regions of Northwest China and North China were stable suitable habitats. It is recommended to strengthen the monitoring of X. spinosum in the above high-potential suitable areas, as well as other moderately and highly suitable areas and potential colonization zones, and adopt integrated strategies combining management and prevention to mitigate its negative ecological and economic impacts. The findings of this study can provide theoretical support for the prevention, control and management of X. spinosum invasion.