Abstract: The 15th Five-Year Plan period is a crucial stage for ensuring carbon peak by 2030. Based on the analysis of carbon emission intensity data of all provinces in China from 2011 to 2022, this paper uses the Moran index, Spatial Durbin model, and Markov chain transition probability matrix to reveal the spatial correlation, influencing factors, and temporal dynamic evolution characteristics of carbon emission intensity in each province. The results show that the carbon emission intensity of all provinces in China is not randomly distributed spatially. In different years, there is a positive spatial effect, presenting a high-high clustering or low-low clustering. Industrial structure, R&D intensity, urbanization level, renewable energy development level, foreign investment level, and the degree of opening up all have significant negative impacts on the carbon emission intensity of provincial regions in China. The improvement of industrialization level and financial development level will promote the increase in carbon emission intensity. The results of single-variable Markov chain show that the carbon emission intensity of most provinces can maintain the initial state, while the carbon emission intensity of Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, and Ningxia may further increase. Among them, Liaoning has the greatest possibility of an increase in carbon emission intensity. The probability of transferring from high to low or from high-high to low-low carbon emission intensity is greater for Tianjin, Jilin, Heilongjiang, and is greater than the probability of transferring to high or high-high. Inner Mongolia shows an unclear transfer situation. The results of the spatial Markov transition probability matrix show that with the extension of the transition period, the probability of the low-intensity and medium-high-intensity carbon emissions in each province "jumping" to low-intensity and medium-low-intensity significantly increases. This paper proposed to construct a cross-regional mechanism for coordinated low-carbon development and implementing differentiated energy conservation and emission reduction paths, and steadily promoting the implementation of low-carbon policies and technologies.