山东省极端气候对土地利用碳排放的影响效应研究

Study on the effects of extreme climate on land use carbon emissions in Shandong Province

  • 摘要: 全球极端气候事件的突发性、连续性与反常性日益凸显,土地利用碳排放是陆地生态系统碳循环的重要组成部分,探究极端气候对土地利用碳排放的影响效应可为实现“双碳”目标、提出气候适应型土地利用管理路径提供重要科学依据与数据支撑。基于2000—2024年山东省气象站点数据与土地利用数据,运用Theil-Sen斜率估计、三维核密度估计曲线刻画极端气候指数与土地利用碳排放的时空演变规律,结合Spearman相关性、最优参数地理探测器研析极端气候对土地利用碳排放的相互作用与影响程度。结果显示:2000—2024年山东省122个站点中各极端气候指数整体处于不显著变化状态,冷夜日数(TN10P)、冷昼日数(TX10P)、气温日较差(DTR)以及暖夜日数(TN90P)整体呈现中部高-两侧低的分布格局;土地利用总碳排放时间演变整体处于上升趋势,高碳排放区域集中分布在胶东半岛地区。持续干燥日数(CDD)与土地利用碳排放呈最强的负相关关系,DTR与土地利用碳排放则呈最强的正相关,CDD相关性系数高值区集中分布在东北部地区,而DTR高值区则集聚于研究区南部、西南部区域。CDD、持续湿润日数(CWD)对土地利用碳排放的解释力超过60%,而TN10P、TX10P、TN90P的q平均值均为0.2左右;极端气候指数两两交互探测均表现为非线性增强特征,CWD、CDD对其余极端气候指数的交互解释力q值处于0.45~0.75。研究表明,CDD、CWD对土地利用碳排放的影响效应最显著,亟须构建气候适应型土地规划管理体系以提高山东省应对极端气候的能力,推动实现“经济转型与土地优化”的双统筹目标。

     

    Abstract: Global extreme climate events are characterized by increasingly prominent suddenness, continuity, and abnormality. Carbon emissions from land use constitute a critical component of the terrestrial ecosystem's carbon cycle. Investigating the effects of extreme climate on carbon emissions from land use can provide crucial scientific evidence and data support for achieving the 'dual carbon' goal and formulating climate-adaptive land use management pathways. Utilizing meteorological station data and land use data of Shandong Province from 2000 to 2024, this study employed Theil-Sen slope estimation and three-dimensional kernel density estimation curves to characterize the spatiotemporal evolution of extreme climate indices and land-use carbon emissions. Furthermore, Spearman correlation and Optimal Parameter Geodetector were integrated to explore the interactions and influence magnitudes of extreme climate indices on land-use carbon emissions. The results indicated that from 2000 to 2024, the extreme climate indices from 122 stations in Shandong Province showed no significant changes. The number of cold night days (TN10P), cold daytime days (TX10P), diurnal temperature range (DTR), and warm night days (TN90P) exhibited a spatial distribution pattern of higher values in the central region and lower values on the eastern and western sides. The total carbon emissions from land use demonstrated an overall upward trend, with high-emission areas concentrated in the Jiaodong Peninsula. Consecutive dry days (CDD) exhibited the strongest negative correlation with land-use carbon emissions, whereas DTR showed the strongest positive correlation. High correlation coefficients for CDD were concentrated in the northeastern region, while those for DTR were predominantly located in the southern and southwestern regions of the study area. CDD and consecutive wet days (CWD) accounted for over 60% of explanatory power for land-use carbon emissions, while the average q values of TN10P, TX10P, and TN90P were approximately 0.2. All pairwise interactions among the extreme climate indices exhibited nonlinear enhancement; the interactive explanatory power (q value) of CWD and CDD with other extreme climate indices ranged from 0.45 to 0.75. The research indicates that CDD and CWD exert the most significant effect on land-use carbon emissions. Therefore, there is an urgent need to establish a climate-adaptive land planning and management system to enhance Shandong Province's capacity to cope with extreme climate events and promote the realization of the dual objectives of economic transformation and land optimization.

     

/

返回文章
返回