Abstract:
Global extreme climate events are characterized by increasingly prominent suddenness, continuity, and abnormality. Carbon emissions from land use constitute a critical component of the terrestrial ecosystem's carbon cycle. Investigating the effects of extreme climate on carbon emissions from land use can provide crucial scientific evidence and data support for achieving the 'dual carbon' goal and formulating climate-adaptive land use management pathways. Utilizing meteorological station data and land use data of Shandong Province from 2000 to 2024, this study employed Theil-Sen slope estimation and three-dimensional kernel density estimation curves to characterize the spatiotemporal evolution of extreme climate indices and land-use carbon emissions. Furthermore, Spearman correlation and Optimal Parameter Geodetector were integrated to explore the interactions and influence magnitudes of extreme climate indices on land-use carbon emissions. The results indicated that from 2000 to 2024, the extreme climate indices from 122 stations in Shandong Province showed no significant changes. The number of cold night days (TN10P), cold daytime days (TX10P), diurnal temperature range (DTR), and warm night days (TN90P) exhibited a spatial distribution pattern of higher values in the central region and lower values on the eastern and western sides. The total carbon emissions from land use demonstrated an overall upward trend, with high-emission areas concentrated in the Jiaodong Peninsula. Consecutive dry days (CDD) exhibited the strongest negative correlation with land-use carbon emissions, whereas DTR showed the strongest positive correlation. High correlation coefficients for CDD were concentrated in the northeastern region, while those for DTR were predominantly located in the southern and southwestern regions of the study area. CDD and consecutive wet days (CWD) accounted for over 60% of explanatory power for land-use carbon emissions, while the average q values of TN10P, TX10P, and TN90P were approximately 0.2. All pairwise interactions among the extreme climate indices exhibited nonlinear enhancement; the interactive explanatory power (q value) of CWD and CDD with other extreme climate indices ranged from 0.45 to 0.75. The research indicates that CDD and CWD exert the most significant effect on land-use carbon emissions. Therefore, there is an urgent need to establish a climate-adaptive land planning and management system to enhance Shandong Province's capacity to cope with extreme climate events and promote the realization of the dual objectives of economic transformation and land optimization.