变化水文条件下布哈河生态流量动态估算与调控研究

Dynamic estimation and regulation of ecological flows in the Buha River under a non-stationary hydrological regime

  • 摘要: 在全球气候变化和人类活动影响加剧背景下,以冰雪融水补给为主的河流水文过程呈现显著非平稳性特征,使得基于稳态径流过程设定的生态流量阈值难以适应流域水资源动态管理需要。本研究以青藏高原布哈河为例,基于径流序列突变检验识别1956-2020年径流阶段变化特征,综合运用Tennant法、90%保证率月平均流量法(Q90法)与近10年最枯月平均流量法等水文学方法估算月尺度生态流量,并利用水力学法建立水深-流量响应关系,结合水深阈值反算裸鲤洄游期的生态流量,计算底质不冲不淤流速,校核河床的稳定性。结果表明:分期多年平均流量变化导致生态流量阈值整体抬升,差异在主汛期更显著;相较于1956—2000年流量序列估算结果,2001—2020年1—4月和12月推荐生态流量由2.44m3/s提高至4.88m3/s(Tennant法),5—6月由8.61m3/s(水力学法)提高至14.65m3/s(Tennant法),7—11月由3.27~30.66m3/s(Q90法)提高至7.91~42.70m3/s(Q90法)。断面阈值流量为1.70m3/s与8.61m3/s,且洄游期生态流量条件下河床处于相对稳定状态。研究可为冰雪融水补给型入湖河流的分期、动态、适应性生态流量分期管理与动态调控提供科学依据。

     

    Abstract: Against the backdrop of intensified climate change and human activities, hydrological processes in rivers primarily fed by snow and ice meltwater have become markedly non-stationary, rendering ecological flow thresholds derived under stationary-runoff assumptions inadequate for dynamic water resources management. Using the Buha River on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau as a case study, this study applies change-point tests to the 1956—2020 runoff series to identify regime shifts and delineate runoff periods. Based on the segmented records, estimates monthly ecological flows using hydrological methods including the Tennant method, the 90% exceedance monthly mean flow method (Q90 method), and driest monthly average flow method in recent 10 years. In parallel, a hydraulic method is used to establish the stage–discharge relationship; ecological flows required during the migration period of Gymnocypris przewalskii (naked carp) are back-calculated from threshold water depths, and flow velocities corresponding to non-scouring and non-silting conditions are computed to verify riverbed stability. The results show that changes in multi-year mean discharge between periods lead to an overall increase in ecological-flow thresholds, with more pronounced differences during the main flood season. Compared with estimates based on the 1956—2000 flow series, the recommended ecological flows for 2001—2020 increase from 2.44m³/s to 4.88m³/s for January—April and December (Tennant method), from 8.61m³/s (hydraulic method) to 14.65m³/s for May—June (Tennant method), and from 3.27~30.66m³/s to 7.91~42.70m³/s for July—November (Q90 method). The threshold discharges at the study cross-section are 1.70m³/s and 8.61m³/s, and the riverbed remains in a relatively stable state under ecological-flow conditions during the migration period. This study provides a scientific basis for period-based, dynamic, and adaptive ecological-flow management and regulation in snow- and ice-melt-fed rivers discharging into lakes.

     

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