火力发电企业碳核算方法比对及不确定度评估

Comparison of carbon accounting methods and uncertainty assessment for thermal power enterprises

  • 摘要: 碳市场的规模化发展对火力发电企业碳排放数据的精准性与可比性提出了更为严苛的要求,我国现行以计算法(排放因子法)为主的碳核算体系,面临人为干扰风险高、时效性不足等挑战,直测法因其时效性强、不易篡改、自动化程度高等优点正逐渐被国际社会广泛接受,但由于缺乏完善的体系支撑,其与计算法结果的可比性尚无法保证。针对国内7家典型火力发电企业,系统开展计算法与直测法的碳核算结果对比及参数不确定度评估研究。结果表明,直测法碳排放量的平均不确定度为5.06%,显著优于计算法(采用实测燃煤元素碳含量方法时核算碳排放量不确定度为6.88%);在计算法框架内,实测燃煤元素碳含量的核算数据质量显著高于实测低位发热量与单位热值含碳量的方案,且碳氧化率实测可使核算不确定度降幅超50%,而参数实测比例是保证两种核算方法结果一致性的重要因素,当计算法全部参数采用实测值时,其与直测法的核算差异仅为2.51%,全采用缺省值时差异则高达19.62%。本研究从方法学对比与参数优化视角,为两种碳核算方法的衔接互认提供了量化支撑,为火电行业碳数据质量提升及国家碳核算体系完善提供了关键技术参考。

     

    Abstract: The large-scale development of the carbon market has placed more stringent demands on the accuracy and comparability of carbon emission data from thermal power enterprises. China's current carbon accounting system, which mainly relies on the calculation method (emission factor method), faces challenges such as high risk of human interference and insufficient timeliness. The direct measurement method is gradually being widely accepted internationally due to its advantages of better timeliness, tamper resistance, and high automation. However, due to the lack of well-established system support, its comparability with calculation method results cannot yet be guaranteed. This study systematically compared the carbon accounting results of the calculation method (emission factor method) and the direct measurement method and evaluated the parameter uncertainty for seven typical domestic thermal power enterprises. The results showed that the average uncertainty of carbon emissions using the direct measurement method was 5.06%, significantly lower than that of the calculation method (6.88% when using measured elemental carbon content in coal). Within the calculation method framework, the data quality of measured elemental carbon content was significantly higher than that of measured lower heating value and carbon content per unit calorific value schemes. Moreover, measuring the carbon oxidation rate can reduce the accounting uncertainty by more than 50%. The proportion of measured parameters was a key factor in ensuring the consistency of results between the two accounting methods. When all parameters in the calculation method were based on measured values, the difference with the direct measurement method was only 2.51%, whereas using all default values resulted in a difference of up to 19.62%. From the perspectives of methodological comparison and parameter optimization, this study provides quantitative support for the mutual recognition of the two carbon accounting methods. It also offers key technical references for improving carbon data quality in the thermal power sector and refining the national carbon accounting system.

     

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