Abstract:
Groundwater, as a crucial source of drinking water, is significantly influenced by anthropogenic factors in terms of its depth and resource quantity. Scientifically revealing the driving mechanisms of anthropogenic factors on groundwater depth and resource quantity is of great significance for groundwater resource management. Taking Shandong Province as an example, this study, based on groundwater depth and resource data from 2005 to 2022, applied comprehensive methods including the Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test, Pearson correlation analysis, and partial least squares regression (PLSR) to systematically reveal the evolution characteristics and driving factors of groundwater depth and resource quantity in Shandong Province. The results indicated that: 1) Significant turning points in groundwater depth and resource quantity in Shandong Province occurred in 2008, 2014, and 2020. The evolution process could be divided into three stages: a stable period (2005-2013), a fluctuating period (2013-2019), and a recovery period (2019-2022). Thanks to strengthened control measures, groundwater depth recovered to −7.50 m by 2022. 2) Correlation analysis showed that precipitation was positively correlated with groundwater resource quantity (
r=0.56). Among anthropogenic factors, groundwater supply (
r=0.81), population size (
r=0.77), and agricultural water use (
r=0.78) had the most significant impacts on groundwater resource changes. In contrast, indicators such as GDP and industrial water use showed weaker correlations, indicating that economic growth had an indirect influence on groundwater changes. 3) The degree of influence of anthropogenic factors varied across different stages. After 2013, the water supply from the South-to-North Water Diversion Project increased from 0.170 billion m
3 to 1.088 billion m
3, driving groundwater resources to recover from 7.182 billion m
3 to 11.785 billion m
3. Artificial ecological water use has increased from 0.607 billion m
3 in 2013 to 1.988 billion m
3 in 2022, playing a positive role in groundwater recovery. The study demonstrates that appropriate anthropogenic interventions, such as optimizing agricultural water-saving technologies, regulating water supply from the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, optimizing water resource allocation based on population distribution, and implementing artificial ecological engineering projects, can achieve sustainable utilization of groundwater resources.