人为因素对地下水埋深和资源量的影响以山东省为例

Impact of human factors on groundwater depth and resource quantity: a case study of Shandong Province

  • 摘要: 地下水作为重要的饮用水来源,其埋深和资源量受人为因素的显著影响,科学揭示人为因素对地下水埋深和资源量的驱动机制对于地下水资源管理具有重要意义。以山东省为例,基于2005—2022年地下水埋深与资源量数据,综合运用Mann-Kendall趋势检验、皮尔逊相关性分析与偏最小二乘回归等方法,系统揭示山东省地下水埋深和资源量的演变特征及其驱动因素。结果表明:1)山东省地下水埋深与资源量在2008年、2014年和2020年出现显著突变,演变过程可分为稳定期(2005—2013年)、波动期(2013—2019年)和回升期(2019—2022年)3个阶段,得益于管控措施加强,2022年地下水埋深回升至−7.50 m。2)相关性分析表明,降水量与地下水资源量呈正相关(r=0.56);地下水供水量(r=0.81)、人口规模(r=0.77)和农业用水量(r=0.78)对地下水资源量变化的影响较为显著;GDP、工业用水量等指标的相关性较弱,说明经济增长对地下水变化的影响具有间接性。3)不同阶段人为因素的影响程度存在差异。2013年后南水北调供水量由1.70亿m3增至10.88亿m3,带动地下水资源量由71.82亿m3回升至117.85亿m3;人工生态环境用水量自2013年的6.07亿m3增至2022年的19.88亿m3,对地下水恢复起到积极作用。研究表明,适当的人为干预措施,如优化农业节水技术、调控南水北调供水、根据人口分布优化水资源供给及建设人工生态环境工程,可实现地下水资源的可持续利用。

     

    Abstract: Groundwater, as a crucial source of drinking water, is significantly influenced by anthropogenic factors in terms of its depth and resource quantity. Scientifically revealing the driving mechanisms of anthropogenic factors on groundwater depth and resource quantity is of great significance for groundwater resource management. Taking Shandong Province as an example, this study, based on groundwater depth and resource data from 2005 to 2022, applied comprehensive methods including the Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test, Pearson correlation analysis, and partial least squares regression (PLSR) to systematically reveal the evolution characteristics and driving factors of groundwater depth and resource quantity in Shandong Province. The results indicated that: 1) Significant turning points in groundwater depth and resource quantity in Shandong Province occurred in 2008, 2014, and 2020. The evolution process could be divided into three stages: a stable period (2005-2013), a fluctuating period (2013-2019), and a recovery period (2019-2022). Thanks to strengthened control measures, groundwater depth recovered to −7.50 m by 2022. 2) Correlation analysis showed that precipitation was positively correlated with groundwater resource quantity (r=0.56). Among anthropogenic factors, groundwater supply (r=0.81), population size (r=0.77), and agricultural water use (r=0.78) had the most significant impacts on groundwater resource changes. In contrast, indicators such as GDP and industrial water use showed weaker correlations, indicating that economic growth had an indirect influence on groundwater changes. 3) The degree of influence of anthropogenic factors varied across different stages. After 2013, the water supply from the South-to-North Water Diversion Project increased from 0.170 billion m3 to 1.088 billion m3, driving groundwater resources to recover from 7.182 billion m3 to 11.785 billion m3. Artificial ecological water use has increased from 0.607 billion m3 in 2013 to 1.988 billion m3 in 2022, playing a positive role in groundwater recovery. The study demonstrates that appropriate anthropogenic interventions, such as optimizing agricultural water-saving technologies, regulating water supply from the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, optimizing water resource allocation based on population distribution, and implementing artificial ecological engineering projects, can achieve sustainable utilization of groundwater resources.

     

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