中国省域可再生能源电力消纳量时空异质性与影响因素

Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and influencing factors of provincial-level renewable electricity consumption in China

  • 摘要: 提升可再生能源电力消纳水平,不仅有利于加快构建清洁低碳、安全高效的能源体系,还可以促进可再生能源开发利用。基于中国31个省(区、市)2015—2022年可再生能源电力消纳量,运用Dagum基尼系数和最优地理探测器,探讨中国可再生能源电力消纳量时空异质性及影响因素。结果表明:2015—2022年,我国可再生能源与非水电可再生能源电力消纳量均呈持续上升态势。地区差异上,我国可再生能源和非水电可再生能源电力消纳水平的总体差异均呈下降态势,地区差异均来源于超变密度。影响因素上,电能设施与政策规划是影响我国可再生能源电力消纳总量的关键影响因素,环境基础与电能设施是影响我国非水电可再生能源电力消纳量的关键因素。建议因地制宜设计省域可再生能源电力消纳差异化发展路径,持续加强电力基础设施建设并有效管控碳排放总量,建立健全相关制度保障,以此推动可再生能源电力消纳的更好发展。

     

    Abstract: Increasing the consumption level of renewable electricity not only helps accelerate the construction of a clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient energy system, but also promotes the development and utilization of renewable energy. Based on the renewable electricity consumption data from 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in China from 2015 to 2022, this study employed the Dagum Gini coefficient and the optimal geographical detector to explore the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of renewable electricity consumption and its influencing factors. The results showed that from 2015 to 2022, both total renewable electricity consumption and non-hydro renewable electricity consumption in China exhibited a steady upward trend. In terms of regional differences, the overall differences in the consumption of both renewable and non-hydro renewable electricity showed a declining trend, with regional differences mainly originating from transvariation density. Regarding influencing factors, electricity infrastructure and policy planning were the key factors affecting the total renewable electricity consumption in China, while environmental conditions and electricity infrastructure were the critical factors influencing non-hydro renewable electricity consumption. Therefore, China should formulate province-specific development of renewable electricity consumption, continuously strengthen the construction of electricity infrastructure, effectively control the total carbon emissions, and establish and improve relevant institutional guarantees to achieve high level of renewable electricity consumption.

     

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