基于行星边界的青藏高原环境可持续性评估以青海和西藏为例

Planetary boundary-based assessment of environmental sustainability of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau: a case study of Qinghai Province and Xizang Autonomous Region

  • 摘要: 为科学评估青藏高原环境可持续性,以青海省和西藏自治区为研究对象,基于行星边界框架,选取土地利用、氮循环、磷循环、淡水利用4项关键指标,采用人均法将全球尺度边界降尺度至区域层面,结合环境足迹法分析青藏高原资源环境利用现状,并与区域环境边界进行比较,评估资源环境可持续性。结果表明:2010—2020年,青海和西藏的土地利用、氮循环、磷循环及淡水利用边界均呈增长趋势,增幅在5%~22%。对比资源利用现状值发现,青海和西藏土地利用可持续性指数(ESDI)均高于0.7,氮循环ESDI均为正值,青海磷循环ESDI由–0.07回升至0.29,而西藏淡水利用ESDI长期低于0,处于不可持续状态。地级市层面差异显著,西藏那曲市、阿里地区及青海果洛州、玉树州4项指标长期维持高可持续性,而西藏日喀则市及青海海东市、海南州多项指标处于不可持续状态。研究揭示,青藏高原整体处于土地利用和氮循环可持续、淡水利用和磷循环不可持续的状态,淡水利用的不可持续主要源于农业结构不科学,磷的不可持续主要源于大规模的农业种植。

     

    Abstract: To scientifically assess the environmental sustainability of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, this study focused on Qinghai Province and Xizang Autonomous Region, using the planetary boundaries framework. Four key indicators including land use, nitrogen cycling, phosphorus cycling, and freshwater use were selected, and the global boundaries were downscaled to the regional level using a per capita approach. Combined with the environmental footprint method, regional resource use was analyzed and compared with the corresponding environmental boundaries to evaluate the sustainability of resources and environment. Results showed that from 2010 to 2020, the boundary values of land use, nitrogen cycling, phosphorus cycling, and freshwater use increased by 5%-22%. Resource use status indicated that land use environmental sustainability development index (ESDI) exceeded 0.7 and nitrogen cycling ESDI remained positive in both regions; phosphorus cycling ESDI in Qinghai recovered from –0.07 to 0.29, while freshwater use ESDI in Xizang consistently remained below zero, indicating persistent overuse. At the prefectural level, Naqu and Ali in Xizang and Guoluo and Yushu in Qinghai maintained high sustainability, whereas Shigatse in Xizang and Haidong and Hainan in Qinghai showed multiple unsustainable indicators. Research reveals that the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau as a whole is in a state where land use and nitrogen cycling are sustainable, while freshwater utilization and phosphorus cycling are unsustainable. The unsustainability of freshwater utilization mainly stems from the unscientific agricultural structure, and the unsustainability of phosphorus mainly results from large-scale agricultural planting.

     

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