Abstract: The Yellow River Basin hosts a large number of resource-based industrial parks (RBIPs), including coal chemical, petrochemical, and non-ferrous metallurgy clusters. To scientifically evaluate the water resource efficiency (WRE) of these RBIPs and their improvement potential, we selected the panel data of typical parks from 2014 to 2023 and evaluated the static WRE by applying the super-efficiency EBM model that accounted for undesirable outputs. Based on the evaluation results, we conducted spatial redundancy analysis of WRE status, water pollutant redundancy, and spatial disparities (as measured by Dagum Gini coefficients). Furthermore, dynamic changes in WRE were evaluated by applying the Malmquist (ML) productivity index, while multi-scenario projections from 2024 to 2030 were performed. Key findings included: (1) During the study period, the WRE of RBIPs in the Yellow River Basin showed an overall upward trend, with an average value of 0.796, and had not yet reached the effective (efficiency value ≥1) state. There were significant spatial disparities in pollutant redundancies: RBIPs in Shanxi exhibited the highest redundancy rates for COD (41.95%) and NH₃-N (43.74%), while RBIPs in Henan had notably high volatile phenol redundancy (88.09%), suggesting the urgent need for enhanced pollution control measures. The overall Dagum Gini coefficient declined, indicating a gradual reduction in spatial inequality in WRE. (2) The ML index of WRE improved annually, driven by technical progress change (TC) and pure technical efficiency (PTE), each with a contribution rate of 5%. In contrast, scale efficiency (SE) exerted an inhibitory effect. (3) Multi-scenario projections suggested that WRE would continue growing dynamically from 2024 to 2030. Under baseline, moderate, and enhanced scenarios, average WRE values were projected to reach 0.87, 0.89, and 0.92, respectively. However, growth rates varied across different RBIPs. To further improve WRE, the RBIPs should adopt location-specific strategies and develop differentiated, precise water resource utilization plans and management policies.