中国城市净碳汇的空间特征及影响因素

Spatial characteristics and influencing factors of urban net carbon sinks in China

  • 摘要: 探讨空间要素对城市净碳汇的影响,对于优化城市空间格局与实现碳中和具有重要意义。基于探索性空间分析方法和泰尔系数刻画2022年中国296个地级市的净碳汇空间分布特征,并运用地理加权回归模型识别了城市净碳汇的社会经济与空间影响因素。结果表明:城市净碳汇存在显著的空间分异,总体上呈现西高东低的特征,并且具有显著的空间自相关性,高-高集聚主要集中于西部地区,低-低集聚区主要有京津冀地区以及山西、河南等区域;城市净碳汇区域内部发展差异明显,存在较强的不均衡性,东部差异达42.3%,占主导地位;社会经济和空间结构因素对净碳汇的影响存在显著的空间异质性。GDP和人口规模整体形成抑制效应,技术进步对净碳汇具有促进作用且在东南沿海地区更显著;建成区规模扩张和离散开发对净碳汇产生抑制,形状复杂度对净碳汇具有促进作用且在东部地区更显著;生态空间因素方面,高质量的斑块规模扩张、稳定连续的景观边界与适度的景观破碎性共同成为提升净碳汇的核心保障。

     

    Abstract: Investigating the influence of spatial factors on urban net carbon sinks is crucial for optimizing urban spatial patterns and achieving carbon neutrality to. By using the Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) method and Theil indices, this study examined the spatial distribution characteristics of net carbon sinks across 296 prefecture-level cities in China in 2022. The Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model was employed to identify the socioeconomic and spatial factors affecting urban net carbon sinks. The key findings were as follows: Significant spatial heterogeneity existed in urban net carbon sinks, exhibiting a general pattern of "higher in the west and lower in the east". Strong spatial autocorrelation was observed, with high-high clusters concentrated in western regions and low-low clusters primarily located in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area, as well as in Shanxi and Henan provinces. Regional disparities were prominent, with substantial intraregional imbalances in the spatial distribution of urban net carbon sinks. The eastern region showed the greatest variation, accounting for 42.3% of the total disparity. Spatially varying effects were evident in how socioeconomic and spatial structural factors influence net carbon sinks, indicating significant spatial non-stationarity. The overall inhibitory effect of GDP and population size was formed, while technological progress had a promoting effect on net carbon sinks, which was more significant in the southeastern coastal areas. The expansion of built-up areas and discrete development suppressed net carbon sink, while the complexity of shapes promoted net carbon sink formation, which was more significant in the eastern region. In terms of ecological spatial factors, high-quality patch expansion, stable and continuous landscape boundaries, and moderate landscape fragmentation collectively formed the core mechanisms for enhancing net carbon sinks.

     

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