Abstract:
This study assessed the cultivated land carrying loads and risks of livestock and poultry manure in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River from an integrated crop-livestock farming perspective. Using data from the 2022 national and local statistical yearbooks and statistical bulletins, along with the pollutant generation coefficients during the livestock and poultry breeding period from the Second National Pollution Source Census and the actual cultivated land area in various regions, we estimated the cultivated land carrying loads of livestock and poultry manure, total nitrogen and total phosphorus in this region and conducted a risk assessment. The results showed that in 2021, the total livestock manure generation reached 473.48 million tons (Mt), with nitrogen (TN) and phosphorus (TP) contents of 2.280 5 and 0.409 0 Mt, respectively. Cattle manure dominated at 292.77 Mt (61.83% of total), while Sichuan Province contributed the largest share (134.75 Mt, 28.46%). The nitrogen and phosphorus loads on cultivated land measured 135.71 and 24.34 kg/hm
2, reaching 79.83% and 69.54% of the EU's annual application limits for organic fertilizers, respectively. Cultivated land carrying indexes of nitrogen and phosphorus from livestock and poultry breeding indicated that Sichuan, Chongqing, Guizhou and Yunnan possessed potential for controlled livestock expansion, whereas Xizang and Qinghai faced high pollution risks due to reliance solely on cultivated land for manure assimilation, necessitating diversified land-based approaches. The theoretical land carrying capacity was calculated at 247.63 million pig equivalents in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, with a developmental deficit of 28.72 million pig equivalents, but the distribution was extremely uneven. When viewed solely based on cultivated land consumption, Sichuan shouldered the main responsibility for further expanding livestock and poultry farming within the region. To address these challenges, region-specific strategies should prioritize fertilizer-oriented manure utilization while expanding energy conversion and feed production pathways. An integrated approach was critical to achieving comprehensive manure management and sustainable resource utilization in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River.