基于复杂水动力水质模型的感潮河口营养盐来源定量解析

Quantitative analysis of nutrient sources in tidal estuaries based on complex hydrodynamic water quality model

  • 摘要: 入海河流区域的污染定量溯源是破解断面水质精准治污难题、实现区域污染精细化管控的核心基础。以SZ河为研究对象,基于水文、水质和气象等多元数据,通过设置开边界模拟潮汐效应,构建了高分辨率的水动力水质模型(IWIND-LRC),并进行潮位、盐度、氨氮指标的参数率定及校验,基于验证后的模型,开发污染物来源数值解析算法,对SZ河入海口断面氨氮进行了定量溯源研究。结果表明:1)通过2020年的模拟校准与2021年的验证,SZ河河口氨氮指标的年均值与实测值的相对误差均小于30%。经过水体模型参数的部分不确定性更新迭代,水动力水质模型的模拟值与实测值吻合较好,能够较好地再现氨氮的空间分布和季节性变化过程;2)外源负荷是SZ河入海口氨氮的主要来源,占86.06%~88.81%,其中BJ河、SW河和WT河等支流的贡献最大,贡献率分别为20.15%~20.55%、15.98%~16.18%、9.53%~9.63%,底泥内源贡献占比为10.82%~11.81%。研究结果为SZ河精准治污提供定量化的决策参考。

     

    Abstract: The quantitative source tracing of pollution in estuarine river systems serves as a fundamental basis for addressing the challenges of precise pollution control at monitoring sections and achieving refined regional pollution management. Taking the SZ River as a case study, based on hydrological, water quality, and meteorological data, we constructed a high-resolution hydrodynamic-water quality model (IWIND-LRC) by setting open boundaries configured to simulate tidal effects. The model underwent parameter calibration and validation for tidal levels, salinity, and ammonia nitrogen concentrations. Based on the validated model, a numerical source apportionment algorithm was developed to quantify ammonia nitrogen sources at the SZ River estuary. Key findings included: 1) The relative errors between simulated and measured annual averages of ammonia nitrogen during the 2020 calibration and 2021 validation phases remained below 30%. Partial uncertainty updates to model parameters improved agreement between simulations and observations, effectively reproducing the spatial distribution and seasonal variation patterns of ammonia nitrogen. 2) External loads were the primary source of ammonia nitrogen at the SZ River estuary, accounting for 86.06%-88.81%, with major tributaries including the BJ River (20.15%-20.55%), the SW River (15.98%-16.18%), and the WT River (9.53%-9.63%) contributing the most significantly; while sediment internal sources accounted for 10.82%-11.81%. These results provide a scientific foundation for targeted pollution control in the SZ River and offer valuable insights for pollution source apportionment in other riverine systems.

     

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