气候变化下河套灌区最佳管理措施削减面源污染的效率评估

Evaluation of the reduction efficiency of best management practices for non-point source pollution in Hetao irrigation district under climate change

  • 摘要: 河套灌区作为亚洲最大的自流式灌区,高投入高产出的农业生产模式导致灌区严重的农业面源污染问题,大量的氮随着农田退水逐级汇入总排干。通过结合遥感数据预处理的数字高程数据(DEM)在SWAT模型中明确灌区的汇水关系并划分子流域,分析不同气候和最佳管理措施情景下流域总氮(TN)负荷累加流失量的变化。结果表明:利用处理后的DEM数据构建SWAT模型可以准确模拟流域排沟水系,模型生成水系与流域真实排沟水系重合率高达98%,在此基础上对流域径流和流域面源总负荷进行率定可以较为准确地模拟人为干预下的灌区情况。施肥减量20%和灌溉减量10%的组合措施对TN负荷的消减效果较好,在历史和预估气候情景下流域TN负荷累加流失量的消减率分别为6%和8%;气候变化对河套灌区总排干以南区域的TN负荷累加流失量影响显著,并在总排干处达到最高,且呈现出自西向东逐级累加的趋势;气候变化使灌区TN负荷累加流失量提高了近9倍,同时使未来极端降雨事件的频率和降水量均显著增加,导致总排干处积累了全流域60%以上的氮负荷。模型可为河套灌区应对气候变化情景下面源污染治理提供参考,并为应对由气候变化带来的面源污染暴发事件提供风险预警。

     

    Abstract: Hetao irrigation district, the largest self-flowing irrigation district in Asia, faces a serious agricultural non-point source (NPS) pollution problem resulting from its high-input and high-output farming practices. A large amount of nitrogen is transported progressively into the main drainage canal via agricultural return flow. This study utilized the digital elevation model (DEM) preprocessed by remote sensing data within the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to explicitly define the watershed's drainage network and delineate the sub-basins. The model was used to analyze the changes in the cumulative loss of TN load in the basin under different climate scenarios and best management practices (BMPs). The results showed that the SWAT model constructed using the treated DEM data could accurately simulate the drainage ditch system in the basin, demonstrating a 98% spatial agreement between the model-generated drainage system and the real drainage system. Calibrating the watershed runoff and total NPS load based on this could accurately simulate the irrigation area under human intervention. The combination of a 20% reduction in fertilization and a 10% reduction in irrigation was most effective in reducing TN load. The reduction rates of accumulated TN load loss in the watershed under historical and projected climate scenarios were 6% and 8%, respectively. Climate change had a significant impact on the cumulative loss of TN load in the southern region of Hetao irrigation district's main drainage canal. The load showed a trend of gradual accumulation from west to east, peaking at the main drainage canal. Climate change increased the cumulative loss of TN load in the irrigation area by nearly 9 times, and significantly increased the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events in the future, resulting in the accumulation of more than 60% of the nitrogen load in the whole basin at the main drainage canal. The model can serve as a valuable tool for the source pollution control under the climate change scenario in Hetao irrigation district and offer an early warning system for dealing with the risk of NPS pollution outbreak caused by climate change.

     

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