京津冀降碳-减污-扩绿系统耦合协调及时空演化

Coupling coordination and spatiotemporal evolution of Carbon Reduction-Pollution Reduction-Green Expansion system in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

  • 摘要: 在可持续发展的背景下,降碳、减污、扩绿协同增效是促进我国经济社会发展全面绿色转型的总抓手。京津冀作为我国最早开展污染协同治理的区域,其降碳、减污、扩绿协同发展对落实“双碳”目标、推动高质量发展具有重要示范意义。基于京津冀13个城市2000—2020年的16个指标数据,构建了降碳-减污-扩绿系统,利用综合评价指数法、耦合协调度模型和空间自相关检验等方法探究了京津冀降碳、减污、扩绿协同效应的时空演化特征及驱动因素。结果表明:京津冀降碳和减污2个子系统的综合评价指数呈现波动的趋势,扩绿子系统呈现先下降后平稳趋势;2000—2006年、2007—2013年和2014—2020年3个阶段,第一阶段有1个城市的耦合协调度处于轻度失调,大部分城市处于濒临失调,第二阶段有5个城市处于濒临失调,其他处于勉强协调和中级协调之间,第三个阶段大部分城市处于勉强协调以上,良好协调城市开始出现;3个阶段的莫兰指数均为负值,表明京津冀城市之间的耦合协调度不均衡,但莫兰指数绝对值逐年递增,表明京津冀耦合协调度的空间差异变小,区域降碳-减污-扩绿存在一定的协调发展潜力。

     

    Abstract: In the context of sustainable development, achieving the synergy of carbon reduction, pollution reduction and green expansion is the general starting point for promoting the comprehensive green transformation of China's economic and social development. As the first region in China to carry out coordinated pollution control, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region's effort to promote carbon reduction, pollution reduction and green expansion has important demonstration significance for implementing the "dual carbon" goal and promoting high-quality development in China. Based on the data of 16 indicators of 13 cities in the BTH region from 2000 to 2020, a Carbon Reduction-Pollution Reduction-Green Expansion system was constructed. The spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of the synergistic effect of carbon reduction, pollution reduction and green expansion in the BTH region were explored by using the comprehensive index method, coupling coordination degree model and spatial autocorrelation test. The results showed that the composite index of the two subsystems of carbon reduction and pollution reduction in the BTH region showed a fluctuating trend, while the green expansion subsystem showed a trend of first downward followed by steady. The results showed that in the three stages of 2000-2006, 2007-2013 and 2014-2020, the coupling coordination degree was as follows: in the first stage, one city was in mild disharmony, and most cities were on the verge of disharmony; in the second stage, five cities were on the verge of disharmony, and the others were between barely coordination and intermediate coordination; in the third stage, most cities were above barely coordination, and cities with good coordination began to appear. The Moran's indices of the three stages are all negative, indicating that the coupling coordination degree among cities in the study area is unbalanced. However, the absolute values of Moran's indices increase year by year, indicating that the spatial differences in the coupling coordination degree of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei are becoming smaller, and there is a certain potential for coordinated development in regional carbon reduction, pollution reduction and green expansion.

     

/

返回文章
返回