Spatiotemporal evolution of livestock manure load risk on cultivated land in China

To achieve efficient resource recycling and coordinated governance of the ecological environment, this study explored the synergistic effects between livestock manure production and cultivated land’s carrying capacity. By establishing a risk-level indicator system for livestock manure loading on cultivated land in China and conducting spatial correlation analysis, we characterized the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of livestock manure load risk levels across regions, and applied centroid modeling to analyze risk-level trajectory shifts. The findings revealed that pronounced spatial heterogeneity was observed in manure loading risk levels. The risk-restricted zones were distributed in a belt-like pattern across ecologically sensitive areas of the Qinghai-Xizhang Plateau and the southern coastal regions. The risk-potential zones were primarily located in the southeast coastal areas and the central plain regions. The general-risk zones served as transitional belts, spatially connecting the aforementioned two types of zones, and were mainly distributed in southwest and central China regions. The gradient differentiation in risk levels showed a significant spatial coupling relationship with China's cultivated land resource endowments. Spatial correlation analysis revealed a positive global spatial autocorrelation in the livestock manure load risk level. The local concentration was mainly low-low clustering (shifting from southern to northern agriculturally developed regions), accompanied by local high-high clustering (Xizang ecologically fragile area) , high-low clustering (coastal areas of Fujian and Guangdong) and low-high clustering (Xinjiang), reflecting marked regional disparities in crop-livestock coordination. Centroid trajectory analysis demonstrated that the center of manure load risk dynamically shifted spatially, with an overall east-west shift of risk-level centroids and greater intensity than north-south shift. There was a synergistic effect between integrated planting and breeding in various administrative regions and the risk level of farmland carrying capacity for livestock and poultry manure pollution. The study proposed the following recommendations: strengthening technological innovation in manure resource recycling to enhance cultivated land compatibility, deepening crop-livestock system synergy theories to support differentiated regional policy formulation, and guiding the optimization of agricultural production structures, to achieve the dual objectives of resource recycling and effective ecological governance.