Generation and recycling of PET beverage packaging in China: current status and projections

In recent years, China has continuously developed its resource recycling system. As a major global producer and consumer of plastics, the country has witnessed corresponding changes in the generation and recovery rates of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) beverage packaging. This study systematically assessed the generation and recovery of PET beverage packaging in China from 2014 to 2023 based on the relationship between "total beverage production-PET-packaged beverage production-PET beverage packaging apparent consumption (waste PET beverage packaging generation)" and the reverse material flow analysis method. The study further forecasted the trends of PET beverage packaging generation and recovery for 2024-2029 using the ARIMA and grey prediction models. The results showed that during 2014-2023, China's annual PET beverage packaging generation consistently increased (4.16-4.56 million tons) while maintaining high recovery rates (97.1%-97.8%). Projections indicated that the generation quantity would continue rising to approximately 4.63 million tons by 2029, whereas the recovery rate was predicted to decline to around 96.6%. This inverse trend of generation quantity and recovery rate was postulated to reflect the contradiction between rapid consumption growth of PET packaging and lagging development in recycling infrastructure. The research suggests that it is imperative for China to enhance its recycling infrastructure and innovate management models to address the challenges posed by the rapidly growing consumption of PET beverage packaging.