基于生命周期评价的光伏产业技术进步与经济成本分析

武琛昊; 孙启宏; 段华波; 李雪迎; 黄蓓佳; 满贺诚; 李晓蔚; 谢明辉

doi:10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20210387

基于生命周期评价的光伏产业技术进步与经济成本分析

doi: 10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20210387

1.
中国环境科学研究院
2.
深圳大学土木与交通工程学院
3.
上海理工大学环境与建筑学院

基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFB1502804)，国家自然科学基金面上项目(71974129)

详细信息

作者简介:
武琛昊(1997—)，男，硕士研究生，主要从事环境经济和生命周期评价研究，Wuch1026@163.com

通讯作者:
谢明辉(1981—)，男，研究员，博士，主要从事生命周期评价研究，huibird82@163.com

中图分类号: X196, X820.3, X324
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-08-05
- 网络出版日期: 2022-06-07

Technology progress and economic cost analysis of photovoltaic industry based on life cycle assessment

1.
Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences
2.
School of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Shenzhen University
3.
School of Environment and Architecture, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology

摘要

摘要:
为了对光伏产业的环境影响、技术进步、经济成本进行系统分析，采用生命周期评价对光伏产业环境影响进行量化分析；基于评价结果，构建光伏产业技术进步评价模型并计算技术进步率；将光伏产业生产设备投资额结合环境影响评价结果计算成本下降率，同时梳理近年来的光伏电价补贴政策，计算补贴下降率；最后将光伏产业技术进步与经济成本进行综合分析。结果表明：生产1 kWp多晶硅光伏组件时光伏产业的环境影响潜值为83.83 Pt，高纯多晶硅、硅片、电池片和组件的环境影响潜值占比分别为43.05%、16.24%、14.84%和25.87%；以2016年为基准年，2017—2020年光伏产业技术进步率分别为5.20%、8.98%、12.48%和20.91%，成本下降率分别为−5.81%、−21.05%、−25.23%和−32.63%，补贴下降率分别为−15.60%、−30.36%、−40.46%和−51.33%；同期光伏补贴下降率大于技术进步率和成本下降率，技术进步速度和成本下降速度在2017年后较为同步，反映了补贴下降在一定程度上能够倒逼企业采用更先进的技术以降低成本。
- 光伏产业 /
- 生命周期评价 /
- 技术进步 /
- 补贴变动 /
- 成本变动
Abstract:
To systematically analyze the environmental impact, technological progress and economic cost of the photovoltaic industry, firstly the life cycle assessment (LCA) was conducted to quantitatively analyze the environmental impacts of the industry. Based on the results of LCA, the technology progress assessment model of photovoltaic industry was constructed and the technology progress rates were calculated. Then the investments of equipment in photovoltaic industry were combined with the results of the environmental impact assessment to calculate the cost reduction rates. At the same time, the photovoltaic electricity price subsidy policies in recent years were sorted out to calculate the subsidy decline rates. Finally, the photovoltaic industry technological progress and economic cost were comprehensively analyzed. The results showed that the photovoltaic industry had an environmental impact potential of 83.83 Pt when producing 1 kWp polysilicon photovoltaic modules, among which high purity polysilicon, silicon wafer, cell and module accounted for 43.05%, 16.24%, 14.84% and 25.87%, respectively. Taking 2016 as the base year, the technological progress rates of the photovoltaic industry in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 were 5.20%, 8.98%, 12.48% and 20.91%; the cost reduction rates were −5.81%, −21.05%, −25.23% and −32.63%; and the subsidy decline rates were −15.60%, -30.36%, −40.46% and −51.33%, respectively. During the same period, the decline rates of photovoltaic subsidies were greater than the rates of technological progress and cost decline. The rates of technological progress and cost decline were more synchronized after 2017, reflecting that the decline in subsidies could force companies to adopt more advanced technologies to reduce costs to a certain extent.
- photovoltaic industry /
- life cycle assessment /
- technological progress /
- changes of subsidy /
- changes of cost

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图 1 光伏产业“环境-技术-经济”评价模型

Figure 1. Photovoltaic industry environment-technology-economy assessment model

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图 2 系统边界

Figure 2. System boundary

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图 3 1 kWp多晶硅光伏组件各产品环境影响潜值占比

Figure 3. Proportion of environmental impact potential of each product of 1 kWp polysilicon photovoltaic module

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图 4 2017—2020年光伏产业技术进步情况

Figure 4. Technological progress of photovoltaic industry from 2017 to 2020

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图 5 2017—2020年光伏产业成本下降情况

Figure 5. Cost reduction of photovoltaic industry from 2017 to 2020

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图 6 2016—2020年光伏技术进步幅度、成本及补贴下降幅度

Figure 6. Extent of photovoltaic technology progress, cost and subsidy reduction from 2016 to 2020

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表 1 终点破坏类生命周期评价模型参数

Table 1. Parameters of end-point damage life cycle assessment model

破坏终点	影响类别	人均基准值	单位	权重/%
人体健康	致癌作用、细颗粒物形成、气候变化、水资源消耗、光化学臭氧形成	0.019	DALY	60
生态系统	气候变化、水资源消耗、生态毒性、酸化、富营养化、光化学臭氧形成	3.68×10⁻⁵	species	25
资源	矿产资源、化石燃料	2 536.37	MJ	15
注：DALY(disability adjusted life years，伤残调整寿命年)表示理想寿命和现实寿命间的差值；species表示环境影响造成生态系统的物种损失数量；MJ表示资源开采消耗的额外能源量。

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表 2 1 kWp多晶硅光伏组件生命周期清单

Table 2. Life cycle inventory of 1 kWp polysilicon photovoltaic modules

投入/排放			单位	高纯多晶硅	硅片	电池片	组件
投入	物料	高纯多晶硅	kg	—	5.353 3	—	—
		硅片	片	—	—	262	—
		电池片	片	—	—	—	247
		工业硅	kg	5.9	—	—	—
		液氯	kg	1.1	—	—	—
		液氢	kg	0.286 8	—	—	—
		NaOH	kg	1.9	—	—	—
		石灰石	kg	1.3	—	—	—
		坩埚	kg	—	1.135 3	—	—
		氩气	kg	—	2.060 9	—	—
		切割线	kg	—	2.241 0	—	—
		砂浆	kg	—	1.601 5	—	—
		聚乙二醇	kg	—	6.932 8	—	—
		黏合剂	kg	—	0.012 1	—	—
		清洗剂	kg	—	0.167 8	—	—
		HCl	kg	—	0.031 5	0.243 8	—
		HF	kg	—	0.062 9	2.004 7	—
		HNO₃	kg	—	0.204 5	3.172 5	—
		乙酸	kg	—	0.141 3	—	—
		玻璃	kg	—	0.299 2	—	36.066 7
		银浆	kg	—	—	0.023 5	—
		铝浆	kg	—	—	0.217 9	—
		液氨	kg	—	—	0.075 9	—
		三氯氧磷	kg	—	—	0.021 7	—
		硅烷	kg	—	—	0.023 5	—
		H₂SO₄	kg	—	—	0.600 8	—
		KOH	kg	—	—	0.124 6	—
		液氧	kg	—	—	0.045 7	—
		铝合金	kg	—	—	—	12.4
		焊带（锡）	kg	—	—	—	0.1573
		焊带（铜）	kg	—	—	—	0.6293
		EVA胶膜	kg	—	—	—	5.3
		背板（PVDF）	kg	—	—	—	0.68
		背板（PET）	kg	—	—	—	2.2933
	能源	电	kW·h	355.997 6	179.843 0	119.472 9	47.466 7
	能源	蒸汽	kg	123.1
排放	气体污染物	硅尘	kg	0.014 6	—	0.005 989	—
		HCl	kg	0.000 5	—	0.005 370	—
		NO_x	kg	0.001 1	0.008 7	0.051 471	—
		HF	kg	0.000 01	0.001 0	0.001 120	—
		Cl₂	kg	—	—	0.000 019 7	—
		NH₃	kg	—	—	0.015 712	—
		非甲烷挥发性有机物（NMVOC）	kg	—	—	0.000 704 3	—
	水体污染物	COD	kg	0.010 9	0.312 0	0.017 638 6	0.000 101 3
		氯化物	kg	0.412 2	—	—	—
		氟化物	kg	0.002 6	0.016 3	0.005 923 7	—
		悬浮物	kg	0.007 7	0.090 5	0.046 775 4	—
		氨氮	kg	0.000 1	—	—	—
		总氮	kg	—	—	0.127 624 0	—
		总磷	kg	—	—	0.0005195	—
	固体废物	硅废料	kg	0.012 4	—	—	—
		废坩埚	kg	—	0.996 4	—	—
		废切割线	kg	—	2.241 0	—	—
		废玻璃	kg	—	0.254 1	—	—

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表 3 光伏产业技术进步评价指标体系

Table 3. Evaluation index system of photovoltaic industry technology progress

产品	指标	单位	指标属性
高纯多晶硅	电耗	kW·h/kg	负
	蒸汽消耗	kg/kg	负
	硅耗	kg/kg	负
硅片	电耗	kW·h/kg	负
电池片	电耗	万kW·h/MWp	负
	铝浆消耗	mg/片	负
	银浆消耗	mg/片	负
组件	组件功率	W	正

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表 4 2016—2020年光伏各产品设备投资额

Table 4. Equipment investment of photovoltaic products from 2016 to 2020

产品	单位	2016年	2017年	2018年	2019年	2020年
高纯多晶硅	万元/t	15.00	14.50	11.50	11.00	10.20
硅片	万元/t	5.10	4.20	2.80	2.60	2.10
电池片	万元/MW	60.00	53.50	42.00	30.30	22.50
组件	万元/MW	6.90	6.80	6.80	6.80	6.30

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表 5 光伏电价补贴政策

Table 5. Photovoltaic electricity price subsidy policies 元/（kW·h）

文号	Ⅰ类资源区	Ⅱ类资源区	Ⅲ类资源区	执行时间
发改价格〔2011〕1594号^[38]		1.15、1.00¹⁾		2011年7月24日
发改价格〔2013〕1638号^[39]	0.90	0.95	1.00	2013年8月26日
发改价格〔2015〕3044号^[40]	0.80	0.88	0.98	2016年1月1日
发改价格〔2016〕2729号^[41]	0.65	0.75	0.85	2017年1月1日
发改价格规〔2017〕2196号^[42]	0.55	0.65	0.75	2018年1月1日
发改能源〔2018〕823号^[43]	0.50	0.60	0.70	2018年5月31日
发改价格〔2019〕761号^[44]	0.40	0.45	0.55	2019年7月1日
发改价格〔2020〕511号^[45]	0.35	0.40	0.49	2020年6月1日
1)上网电价未区分资源区，而是按项目核准建设、建成投产日期等区分。

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表 6 2013—2020年光伏电价补贴

Table 6. Photovoltaic electricity price subsidy amount from 2013 to 2020 元/（kW·h）

年份	Ⅰ类资源区	Ⅱ类资源区	Ⅲ类资源区
2013	1.07	1.08	1.10
2014	0.90	0.95	1.00
2015	0.90	0.95	1.00
2016	0.80	0.88	0.98
2017	0.65	0.75	0.85
2018	0.52	0.62	0.72
2019	0.45	0.52	0.62
2020	0.37	0.42	0.51

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表 7 2017—2020年光伏电价补贴下降率

Table 7. Reduction rate of photovoltaic electricity price subsidy from 2017 to 2020 %

年份	Ⅰ类资源区	Ⅱ类资源区	Ⅲ类资源区	平均值
2017	−18.75	−14.77	−13.27	−15.60
2018	−35.00	−29.55	−26.53	−30.36
2019	−43.75	−40.91	−36.73	−40.46
2020	−53.75	−52.27	−47.96	−51.33

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