清水河流域生态系统服务评估及预测

裴宏伟; 张红娟; 张良; 李雅丽; 张高伟; 刘孟竹

doi:10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20210341

清水河流域生态系统服务评估及预测

doi: 10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20210341

裴宏伟^{1, 2,},
张红娟^{1, 2},
张良³,
李雅丽^{1, 2},
张高伟^{1, 2},
刘孟竹^{1, 2,}

1.
河北建筑工程学院市政与环境工程系
2.
河北省水质工程与水资源综合利用重点实验室
3.
河北省张家口水文勘测研究中心

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目（41701017）；河北省自然科学基金项目（D2020404001）；河北省水利厅水利科技计划(2021-22)；河北省科技厅重点研发计划项目（22377001D）

详细信息

作者简介:
裴宏伟(1987—)，男，副教授，博士，主要从事流域生态水文和城市生态学研究，hwpei@sjziam.ac.cn

中图分类号: X522,X826
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-07-20

Assessment and prediction of ecosystem services in Qingshui River Basin

PEI Hongwei^{1, 2
,},
ZHANG Hongjuan^{1, 2},
ZHANG Liang³,
LI Yali^{1, 2},
ZHANG Gaowei^{1, 2},
LIU Mengzhu^{1, 2
,}

1.
Department of Municipal and Environmental Engineering, Hebei University of Architecture
2.
Hebei Key Laboratory of Water Quality Engineering and Comprehensive Utilization of Water Resources
3.
Zhangjiakou Research Center for Hydrological Survey of Hebei Province

摘要

摘要:
城镇化扩张、农业活动和生态修复等人为因素给清水河流域土地格局和生态环境带来了显著改变，评估并预测未来的土地格局以及生态系统服务与价值对于流域生态可持续发展具有重要意义。基于CA-Markov模型和GIS软件，以预测+设计的方式通过InVEST模型模拟了未来生态系统服务与价值。结果显示：1）清水河流域2000—2018年单位面积碳储量、单位面积土壤保持量、单位面积产水量分别为100.68 t/hm²、800.62 t/hm²、57.88 mm，除碳储量呈减小趋势外，产水量和土壤保持量均呈增长趋势；2）2018年流域生态系统服务价值为24.42亿元，比2000年减少了2.2%，分别为该区2018年农林渔牧业总产值、GDP的2.31、0.78倍；3）未来在坡度大于15°的区域退耕还林条件下，除产水量显著减小外，流域碳储量、土壤保持量生态系统服务价值均显著提升。研究表明，近20年清水河流域在气候均质条件下，生态系统服务及其价值的提升仍然不显著甚至有所下降，但在大于15°陡坡上的植树造林措施能够有效改善这一趋势。
- 清水河流域 /
- 生态系统服务 /
- CA-Markov模型 /
- 退耕还林
Abstract:
Rapid urbanization, agricultural activities and ecological restoration significantly altered land-use pattern and eco-environments of Qingshui River Basin. It is critical for assessing and projecting the future land-use patterns, ecosystem service and its values for ecologically sustainable areas. Based on the CA-Markov model and GIS software, the future ecosystem service and its values were simulated by using InVEST model in the way of prediction plus design. The results showed that: 1) In 2000, 2009 and 2018, the average values of carbon storage, soil conservation, and water yield in Qingshui River Basin approached approximately 100.68 t/hm², 800.62 t/hm², and 57.88 mm, respectively, exhibiting the increasing trends in water yield and soil conservation except for carbon storage which had a decreasing trend. 2) The total ecosystem service values in the study area reached approximately 2.44 billion yuan in 2018, with a 2.2% decrease compared with the level in 2000. This value was 2.31 times of the total output value of agriculture, forestry, fishery and animal husbandry, and 0.78 times of local gross domestic product (GDP). 3) As “Grain for Green” practices were implemented in the regions with >15° slopes, the ecosystem service values of carbon storage and soil conservation got pronouncedly improved, whereas water yield exhibited an obvious decreased trend. The research showed that under the condition of a homogeneous climate in Qingshui River Basin in the last 20 years, the ecosystem service and its values had not significantly increased or even declined. Specifically, the afforestation practices on steep slopes of >15° may help reverse the trend of ecological degradation in Qingshui River Basin.
- Qingshui River Basin /
- ecosystem service /
- CA-Markov model /
- Grain for Green

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图 1 清水河流域高程

Figure 1. Elevation of Qingshui River Basin

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图 2 研究技术路线

Figure 2. Research technology roadmap

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图 3 清水河流域2000—2018年生态系统服务变化

Figure 3. Changes of ecosystem services in Qingshui River Basin from 2000 to 2018

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图 4 不同预测情景下2027年相较于2018年生态系统服务变化

注：S为自然发展情景；S1为退耕还林情景；S2为深度退耕还林情景；S3为退耕还草情景；S4为深度退耕还草情景。

Figure 4. Changes of ecosystem services in 2027 compared with 2018 under different forecast scenarios

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图 5 2000—2018年以及不同预测情景下单位面积生态系统服务价值的变化

Figure 5. Changes of ecosystem service values per unit area in 2000-2018 and under different forecast scenarios

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表 1 清水河流域不同土地利用类型碳密度参数

Table 1. Carbon density parameters of land use types in Qingshui River Basin t/hm²　

土地利用类型	C_a	C_b	C_c	C_d
耕地	6.60	0.66	92.90	0
林地	29.66	9.79	110.75	1.68
草地	1.03	2.61	62.90	0.24
水域	2.29	0	17.16	0
建设用地	7.61	4.51	42.17	0

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表 2 清水河流域不同土地利用类型单位面积的生态系统服务价值

Table 2. Ecosystem service values per unit area in different land use types in Qingshui River Basin 元/hm²　

生态系统服务类型		耕地	林地	草地	水域	建设用地
供给服务	食物生产	878.75	299.81	103.38	827.06	0
	原料生产	413.53	682.32	144.73	237.78	0
	水资源供应	20.68	351.50	82.71	8 570.37	0
	气体调节	692.66	2 243.39	527.25	796.04	0
调节服务	气候调节	372.18	6 719.83	1 385.32	2 367.45	0
	净化调节	103.38	1 995.27	454.88	5 737.70	0
	水文调节	279.13	4 900.31	1 013.14	105 697.76	0
	土壤保持	1 064.83	2 739.62	640.97	961.45	0
	维持养分循环	124.06	206.76	51.69	72.37	0
支持服务	生物多样性	134.40	2 491.51	578.94	2 636.24	0
文化服务	美学景观	62.03	1 095.85	258.46	1 953.92	0
合计		4 145.62	23 726.17	5 241.47	129 858.13	0

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表 3 清水河流域不同力度生态修复措施下的土地利用情景

Table 3. Land use scenarios under different ecological restoration measures in Qingshui River Basin

情景	设计方法	相对变化（相较于2018年）
基础情景	以清水河流域2018年土地利用格局为基准	耕地、林地、草地、水域、建设用地面积分别为604.45、647.58、859.00、15.79、 71.40 km²
自然发展情景	通过CA-Markov模型模拟自然发展情景下的2027年清水河土地利用	耕地、建设用地面积增加42.04、12.34 km²，林地、草地、水域面积分别减少31.20、19.18、4.83 km²
退耕还林	高坡度的区域容易发生土壤侵蚀，基于预测的2027年土地利用数据，为了改善水土流失，将坡度大于25°的耕地改造为林地	耕地、草地、水域面积分别减少6.76、19.18、4.83 km²，林地、建设用地面积分别增加17.61、12.34 km²
深度退耕还林	基于预测的2027年土地利用数据，将坡度大于15°的耕地改造为林地	耕地、草地、水域面积分别减少165.13、19.18、4.83 km²，林地、建设用地面积分别增加175.98、12.34 km²
退耕还草	基于预测的2027年土地利用数据，将坡度大于25°的耕地改造为草地	耕地、林地、水域面积分别减少6.76、31.20、4.83 km²，草地、建设用地面积分别增加29.63、12.34 km²
深度退耕还草	基于预测的2027年土地利用数据，将坡度大于15°的耕地改造为草地	耕地、林地、水域面积分别减少165.13、31.20、4.83 km²，草地、建设用地面积分别增加188.00、12.34 km²

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表 4 清水河流域单位面积生态系统服务变化

Table 4. Changes of ecosystem services per unit in Qingshui River Basin

年份	单位面积碳储量/(t/hm²)	单位面积土壤保持量/(t/hm²)	产水量/ mm
2000	101.38	800.29	56.305
2009	100.47	800.76	57.855
2018	100.28	800.83	59.492

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