基于系统动力学的甘肃省碳排放峰值预测

孔佑花; 王丽; 郭志玲; 姜云超; 王博

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-991X.2018.03.041

基于系统动力学的甘肃省碳排放峰值预测

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-991X.2018.03.041

孔佑花¹,
王丽²,
郭志玲¹,
姜云超¹,
王博^1,*, ,

^1. 兰州大学资源环境学院,甘肃兰州 730000
^2. 兰州水电勘测设计院,甘肃兰州 730000

详细信息

作者简介:
孔佑花(1991—),女,硕士,主要研究方向为低碳发展与碳排放预测, kongyh15@lzu.edu.cn

通讯作者:
王博 E-mail: wangbo@lzu.edu.cn

中图分类号: X24
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2017-10-16
- 刊出日期: 2018-05-20

Carbon emissions peak prediction in Gansu Province based on system dynamics

^1. College of Earth Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
^2. Lanzhou Hydroelectric Survey and Design Institute, Lanzhou 730000, China

More Information

Corresponding author: Bo WANG E-mail: wangbo@lzu.edu.cn

摘要

摘要: 针对经济结构以高耗能行业为主但生态脆弱的甘肃省开展碳排放峰值预测研究,基于对甘肃省碳排放现状的分析,将其分为7个碳排放行业,即电力、热力的生产与供应业,黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业,石油加工炼焦及核燃料加工业,有色金属冶炼及压延加工业,非金属矿物制品业,化学原料及化学制品制造业以及交通运输业。选择每个重点耗能行业碳排放量占比最大的子行业,分别为火力发电供热,钢铁,石油加工,铝、镁,水泥,合成氨及道路运输子行业进行研究。借助Vensim PLE软件建立7个子行业碳排放系统动力学模型,采用情景分析法设置快-慢模式、中-慢模式、慢模式、快-中模式、中模式、慢-中模式、快模式、中-快模式8种情景模式对甘肃省碳排放峰值进行预测。结果表明:甘肃省碳排放峰值出现在2028—2045年,为2.09亿~4.29亿t;同时考虑峰值大小和峰值出现时间及甘肃省发展现状,中模式为实现甘肃省碳排放达峰的最优方案。在此基础上,提出甘肃省今后要加大产业结构调整、能源结构优化、生产技术改进力度。
- 碳排放 /
- 系统动力学 /
- 峰值预测
Abstract: The carbon emissions peak was projected for Gansu Province which is mainly characterized by high energy-consuming industries and fragile ecology. Based on the analysis of the current situation, the carbon emissions in Gansu are divided into seven sectors, i.e. electricity, heat production and supply industry, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, petroleum processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing industry, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, non-metallic mineral products industry, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing and transportation industry. The sub-sectors with largest carbon emission was chosen for each key energy-consuming sector, including electricity, heat industry, iron and steel industry, oil processing industry, aluminum and magnesium industry, cement industry, ammonia industry, and transportation industry. Then, the system dynamics models of sub-sector carbon emissions were established through Vensim PLE software, and eight different scenarios were set using scenario analysis method, being respectively fast-slow scheme, middle-slow scheme, slow scheme, fast-middle scheme, middle scheme, slow-middle scheme, fast scheme, middle-fast scheme, to forecast the carbon emissions peak in Gansu Province. The results show that the peak of carbon emission is 209-429 million tons, it will appear in 2028-2045. In consideration of the peak value, peak occurrence time and current development situation, middle scheme is the optimal way for achieving carbon emissions peak. According to the forecast results, it was proposed that Gansu Province should increase the industrial structure adjustment, energy structure optimization and production technology improvement.
- carbon emissions /
- system dynamics /
- peak forecast

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