典型有机化工厂污染地块氯代烃分布特征及基于蒙特卡洛模拟的风险评估

周礼洋

doi:10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20230197

典型有机化工厂污染地块氯代烃分布特征及基于蒙特卡洛模拟的风险评估

doi: 10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20230197

周礼洋^{1, 2,}

1.
上海申环环境工程有限公司
2.
上海建工环境科技有限公司

基金项目: 上海市青年科技英才扬帆计划项目（21YF1432500）

详细信息

作者简介:
周礼洋（1991—），男，工程师，主要从事土壤和地下水修复研究，528983826@qq.com

中图分类号: X53
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- 文章访问数: 268
- HTML全文浏览量: 70
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2023-03-14
- 录用日期: 2023-07-11
- 修回日期: 2023-04-23
- 网络出版日期: 2023-12-01

Distribution characteristics of chlorinated hydrocarbons in contaminated plots of typical organic chemical plants and risk assessment based on Monte Carlo simulation

ZHOU Liyang^{1, 2
,}

1.
Shanghai Shenhuan Environmental Engineering Co., Ltd.
2.
Shanghai Construction Engineering Environmental Technology Co., Ltd.

Funds: SHI J X,ZHENG J,YANG Y,et al.Optimization of SVE remediation project based on soil layer risk assessment with HERA model[J].Chinese Journal of Environmental Engineering,2019,13(12): 2954-2962.

摘要

摘要:
以长三角某典型有机化工地块为研究对象，采集651个土壤样品和30个地下水样品，研究氯代烃（CAHs）在环境中的污染程度及其空间分布特征，结合蒙特卡洛模拟方法分析土壤和地下水中CAHs的健康风险概率。结果表明：大部分CAHs浓度呈偏正态分布，浓度随着深度增加整体逐渐降低，土壤和地下水中三氯乙烯的污染程度最严重，污染羽主要集中在地块西南部和西北部。三氯乙烯和氯仿是造成健康风险的主要污染物，土壤中三氯乙烯致癌风险大于10⁻⁶ 的概率为87.2%，危害商大于1的概率为71.76%，氯仿危害商大于1的概率为81.28%。每日土壤摄入量对土壤致癌风险的敏感性最大（31.9%），皮肤表面黏性系数对地下水致癌风险和危害商的敏感度最大，分别为16.9和23%。吸入室内空气中来自下层土壤的气态污染物是造成土壤致癌和非致癌风险的主要暴露途径，吸入室内来自地下的气态污染物途径是造成地下水致癌和非致癌风险的主要暴露途径。
- 氯代烃 /
- 污染特征 /
- 健康风险 /
- 概率 /
- 蒙特卡洛模拟
Abstract:
A typical organic chemical plot in the Yangtze River Delta was selected as the research object. A total of 651 soil samples and 30 groundwater samples were collected for analysis and determination. The pollution level and spatial distribution characteristics of chlorinated hydrocarbons (CAHs) in the environment were studied. The health risk probability of CAHs in soil and groundwater was analyzed using Monte Carlo simulation method. The results showed that the concentration of most CAHs was in normal distribution, and gradually decreased with the increase of depth. Trichloroethylene pollution in soil and groundwater was the most serious. The contaminant plumes were mainly concentrated in the southwest and northwest of the plot. Trichloroethylene and chloroform were the main pollutants causing health risks. The probability of a carcinogenic risk greater than 10⁻⁶ for trichloroethylene in soil was 87.2%, the probability of hazard quotient exceeding 1 was 71.76%, and the probability of chloroform hazard quotient exceeding 1 was 81.28%. The daily soil intake had the highest sensitivity to soil cancer risk (31.9%). The skin surface viscosity coefficient had the highest sensitivity to groundwater cancer risk and hazard quotient, being 16.9% and 23%, respectively. Inhaling gaseous pollutants from the underlying soil in indoor air was the main exposure pathway that caused both carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks in soil. Inhaling gaseous pollutants from underground was the main exposure pathway that caused both carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks in groundwater.
- chlorinated hydrocarbons /
- pollution characteristics /
- health risk /
- probabilistic /
- Monte Carlo simulation

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图 1 土壤和地下水采样点位分布

Figure 1. Distribution of soil and groundwater sampling points in the researched site

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图 2 地块暴露途径模型

Figure 2. Exposure pathway model in the researched site

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图 3 土壤和地下水中CAHs类污染物浓度箱线图

Figure 3. Concentration box diagram of chlorinated hydrocarbon pollutants in soil and groundwater

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图 4 CAHs污染物超标浓度的垂向分布

Figure 4. Vertical distribution of excessive concentrations of CAHs pollutants

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图 5 地块CAHs污染范围三维模型

Figure 5. Three-dimensional spatial concentration interpolation distribution of chlorinated hydrocarbon pollution

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图 6 基于 Monte Carlo 模拟的健康风险指数分布

Figure 6. Distribution of health risk index based on Monte Carlo simulation

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图 7 致癌风险和非致癌危害商的敏感性分析

Figure 7. Sensitivity analysis of carcinogenic risk and hazard quotient

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表 1 地块各土层特征参数

Table 1. Characteristic parameters of each soil layer in the researched site

分层	土层类型	含水率/ %	比重/(kg/m³)	容重/ （g/cm³）	孔隙比	渗透系数/（cm/s）	有机质含量/ （g/kg）
第①层	杂填土	38.1	2.70	1.4	1.23	4.77×10⁻⁵	11.1
第②层	淤泥质粉质黏土夹砂	37.7	2.72	1.9	1.06	8.25×10⁻⁶	11.4
第③层	粉质黏土	28.7	2.73	1.1	0.81	4.84×10⁻⁷	12.3
第④层	黏质粉土	28.6	2.71	1.9	0.81	4.39×10⁻⁶	12.7
第⑤层	淤泥质粉质黏土	33.8	2.72	1.8	1.08	7.74×10⁻⁶	11.8
第⑥层	粉质黏土	27.4	2.72	1.2	0.77	4.81×10⁻⁸	11.1

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表 2 蒙特卡洛人体健康概率风险评估输入参数

Table 2. Input parameters of Monte Carlo human health probability risk assessment

参数类型	参数名称	参数含义及单位	概率分布类型	概率模拟参数取值	数据来源
人群暴露参数	ED_a	成人暴露周期/a	三角分布	min=7，max=64，μ=24	文献[18,27]
	EF_a	成人暴露频率/(d/a)	三角分布	min=180，max=365，μ=345	文献[28]
	OSIR_a	成人每日摄入土壤量/（mg/d）	三角分布	min=20，max=1000，μ=100	文献[24]
	DAIR_a	成人每日空气呼吸量/（m³/d）	三角分布	min=6.24，max=114，μ=16.3	文献[24]
	BW_a	成人体重/kg	正态分布	μ=59.78，σ=1.07	文献[29]
	SAE_a	成人暴露皮肤表面积/cm²	正态分布	μ=18182，σ=1.1	文献[30]
	SSAR_a	成人皮肤表面土壤黏附系数/（mg/cm²）	正态分布	μ=0.49，σ=0.54	文献[31]
	FEI_a	成人的室内暴露频率/（d/a）	三角分布	min=104，max=347.7，μ=187.5	文献[32]
	EFO_a	成人的室外暴露频率/（d/a）	三角分布	min=36.5，max=213，μ=62.5	文献[32]
客观环境因素参数	ATnc	非致癌效应平均时间/d	常数	9125	文献[14]
	ATca	致癌效应平均时间/d	均匀分布	min=25404，max=27156	文献[27,32]
	ABS_o	经口摄入吸收效率因子	常数	1	文献[24]
	E_v	每日皮肤接触事件频率	常数	1	文献[24]
	PIAF	吸入土壤颗粒物在体内滞留比例	常数	0.75	文献[24]
	fsp_o	室外空气中来自土壤颗粒物所占比例	常数	0.5	文献[24]
	fsp_i	室内空气中来自土壤颗粒物所占比例	常数	0.8	文献[24]
	SAF	暴露于土壤的参考剂量分配系数	常数	0.2	文献[24]
	PM₁₀	空气中可吸入悬浮颗粒物含量/(mg/m³)	常数	0.119	文献[14]
地块特征参数	d	表层污染土壤层厚度/cm	常数	430	实测值
	L_s	下层污染土壤层埋深/cm	常数	430	实测值
	d_sub	下层污染土壤层厚度/cm	常数	2070	实测值
	h_v	非饱和土层厚度/cm	常数	190	实测值
	f_om	有机质含量/（g/kg）	常数	13.8	实测值
	ρ_b	土壤容重/（g/cm³）	常数	1.42	实测值
	P_ws	含水率/%	常数	23	实测值
	L_gw	地下水埋深/cm	常数	196	实测值
注：max代表最大值；min代表最小值；μ代表平均值；σ代表标准偏差。

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表 3 土壤和地下水中CAHs检测结果

Table 3. Statistics of chlorinated hydrocarbon detection results in soil and groundwater

介质	CAHs种类	筛选值^1）	超标率/%	最大值^1）	最小值^1）	平均值^1）	标准偏差^1）	变异系数/%	峰度	偏度
土壤	三氯乙烯	2.80	17.63	82400.00	3.07	1114.98	7699.14	6.91	109.81	10.38
	1,1,2,2-四氯乙烷	6.80	2.23	495.00	7.64	118.23	154.08	1.30	0.79	1.40
	顺-1,2-二氯乙烯	596.00	0.53	1950.00	663.00	1151.33	569.40	0.49	1.80	1.61
	氯乙烯	0.43	0.91	238.00	1.38	66.93	79.44	1.19	4.55	2.06
	四氯乙烯	53.00	2.34	600.00	61.8	195.03	156.61	0.80	2.12	1.72
	反-1,2-二氯乙烯	54.00	0.51	268.00	71.4	139.87	90.68	0.65	2.60	1.72
	氯仿	0.90	1.52	65.00	1.03	16.49	23.59	1.43	1.12	1.65
	1,1,2-三氯乙烷	2.80	1.82	118.00	4.47	23.10	30.24	1.31	8.89	2.85
	1,1-二氯乙烷	9.00	1.82	186.00	10.8	49.75	51.11	1.03	3.44	1.95
	三氯乙烯	0.21	56.67	456.00	0.21	74.93	118.78	1.59	5.48	2.27
	1,1,2,2-四氯乙烷	0.35	16.67	3.72	0.57	1.69	1.24	0.73	1.22	0.92
	顺-1,2-二氯乙烯	0.06	56.67	63.70	0.16	7.53	15.35	2.04	10.95	3.20
	氯乙烯	0.09	43.33	11.30	0.12	2.24	3.27	1.46	3.27	1.85
地下水	四氯乙烯	0.30	30.00	18.30	0.79	6.42	5.93	0.92	1.32	1.04
	反-1,2-二氯乙烯	0.06	30.00	31.00	0.15	5.90	9.35	1.58	6.49	2.48
	氯仿	0.30	23.33	28.30	0.57	8.08	9.19	1.14	2.97	1.77
1）在土壤介质中，单位为 mg/kg；在地下水介质中，单位为 mg/L。

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