“双碳”目标下林业资源型城市经济-环境-碳排放耦合协调发展研究

彭浩帆; 龙凤; 葛察忠; 段显明; 毕粉粉

doi:10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20230102

“双碳”目标下林业资源型城市经济-环境-碳排放耦合协调发展研究—以伊春市为例

doi: 10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20230102

1.
杭州电子科技大学管理学院
2.
生态环境部环境规划院

基金项目: 国家社会科学基金重大项目（20&ZD092）

详细信息

作者简介:
彭浩帆（1998—），女，硕士研究生，主要从事环境经济学研究，1127702459@qq.com

通讯作者:
龙凤（1981—），女，副研究员，主要从事环境经济与政策研究，longfeng@caep.org.cn

中图分类号: X24
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- 文章访问数: 127
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- PDF下载量: 32
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2023-02-10
- 录用日期: 2023-05-21
- 修回日期: 2023-03-23

Research on the coupled and coordinated development of economy-environment-carbon emission in forestry resource-based city under the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality: a case study of Yichun City

1.
School of Management, Hangzhou Dianzi University
2.
Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning

摘要

摘要:
实现碳达峰、碳中和目标是我国近年来提出的重大战略决策，是引领我国绿色低碳发展的重要目标，可以带来环境质量改善和产业进步等多重效应。以我国典型的林业资源型城市——伊春市为研究对象，建立经济-环境-碳排放评价指标体系并运用熵值法和耦合协调度模型测算伊春市2010—2020年经济发展、环境质量和碳排放水平的耦合协调关系。结果表明：伊春市经济发展与环境质量总体呈上升趋势，但碳排放量和强度不断增加，整体由经济滞后型发展转变至环境和碳排放滞后型发展；伊春市耦合协调水平持续上升，由严重失调衰退发展至中级协调发展，环境和碳排放子系统需要加强改善。最后，从着力解决突出环境问题、强化节能增效和循环经济、大力发展林业经济、积极探索创新碳汇产品价值实现机制等方面出发，提出实现经济高质量发展目标的建议。
- 林业资源型城市 /
- 耦合协调模型 /
- 碳排放 /
- 伊春市
Abstract:
Achieving the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality is a significant strategic decision put forward by China in recent years. It is an important objective leading China's green and low-carbon development, which can bring multiple effects, such as improving environmental quality and advancing industries. Taking Yichun, a typical forestry resource-based city in China, as an example, an economic-environment-carbon emission evaluation indicator system was established and the entropy method and a coupling coordination model were used to calculate the coupling coordination relationship between economic development, environmental quality and carbon emission in Yichun from 2010 to 2020. The results showed that the economic development and environmental quality of Yichun showed an upward trend, but the carbon emissions and intensity increased greatly, and the overall development pattern shifted from the economy lagging to the environmental and carbon emissions lagging. The level of coupling coordination in Yichun had been consistently improving, progressing from severe imbalance and declining development to intermediate coordinated development, and the environmental and carbon emission subsystems needed to be strengthened. Finally, suggestions were proposed to achieve the goal of high-quality economic development, focusing on solving outstanding environmental problems, strengthening energy conservation and efficiency and circular economy, vigorously developing the forestry economy and actively exploring innovative mechanisms of carbon sink product value realization.
- forestry resource-based city /
- coupling coordination model /
- carbon emissions /
- Yichun City

HTML全文

图 1 伊春市2010—2020年各子系统评价指数

Figure 1. Subsystem evaluation indices of Yichun during 2010-2020

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图 2 伊春市2010—2020年整体综合评价指数

Figure 2. Overall comprehensive evaluation index of Yichun during 2010-2020

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图 3 伊春市2010—2020年耦合协调度变化

Figure 3. Vatiation of coupling coordination degree of Yichun during 2010-2020

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表 1 经济-环境-碳排放系统耦合协调评价指标体系

Table 1. Economic-environment-carbon emission system coupling coordination evaluation index system

子系统	一级指标	二级指标	属性	权重
经济（0.330）	发展状况（0.371）	人均地区生产总值（GDP）	正向	0.111
		城镇人均可支配收入	正向	0.130
		农村人均可支配收入	正向	0.130
	发展潜力（0.629）	第三产业增加值占GDP的比例	正向	0.155
		研究与试验发展（R&D）经费投入	正向	0.306
		林业产业总产值	正向	0.168
环境（0.514）	环境质量（0.444）	地表水达到或好于Ⅲ类水体比例	正向	0.070
		单位耕地面积化肥使用折纯量	负向	0.098
		单位耕地面积农药使用量	负向	0.052
		空气质量优良天数比例	正向	0.102
		森林覆盖率	正向	0.122
	环境压力（0.556）	单位GDP二氧化硫排放量	负向	0.144
		单位GDP氮氧化物排放量	负向	0.127
		单位GDP烟尘（粉尘）排放量	负向	0.117
		单位GDP化学需氧量（COD）排放	负向	0.079
		单位GDP氨氮排放量	负向	0.089
碳排放（0.156）		二氧化碳排放量	负向	0.183
		单位GDP二氧化碳排放量	负向	0.180
		能源消耗总量	负向	0.276
		单位GDP能源消耗总量	负向	0.178
		煤炭消费占比	负向	0.183

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表 2 耦合度和耦合协调度等级划分

Table 2. Classification of coupling degree and coupling coordination degree

参数	范围	等级
耦合度（C）	(0, 0.3]	低水平耦合
	(0.3, 0.5]	拮抗阶段
	(0.5, 0.8]	磨合阶段
	(0.8, 1)	高水平耦合
	$1$	良性共振耦合
耦合协调度（D）	[0, 0.1)	极度失调衰退
	[0.1, 0.2)	严重失调衰退
	[0.2, 0.3)	中度失调衰退
	[0.3, 0.4)	轻度失调衰退
	[0.4, 0.5)	濒临失调衰退
	[0.5, 0.6)	勉强协调发展
	[0.6, 0.7)	初级协调发展
	[0.7, 0.8)	中级协调发展
	[0.8, 0.9)	良好协调发展
	[0.9, 1]	优质协调发展

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表 3 伊春市2010—2020年经济-环境-碳排放耦合协调关系

Table 3. Coupling and coordination relationship of economic-environment-carbon emission system of Yichun during 2010-2020

年份	经济评价指数	环境评价指数	碳排放评价指数	综合评价指数	耦合度	耦合类型	耦合协调度	耦合协调类型
2010	0.0001	0.299	0.589	0.246	0.088	低水平耦合	0.147	严重失调衰退
2011	0.099	0.364	0.668	0.324	0.767	磨合阶段	0.498	濒临失调衰退
2012	0.170	0.444	0.641	0.384	0.871	高水平耦合	0.578	勉强协调发展
2013	0.362	0.439	0.756	0.463	0.951	高水平耦合	0.664	初级协调发展
2014	0.285	0.370	0.800	0.409	0.904	高水平耦合	0.608	初级协调发展
2015	0.345	0.341	0.884	0.427	0.899	高水平耦合	0.620	初级协调发展
2016	0.467	0.487	0.722	0.517	0.980	高水平耦合	0.712	中级协调发展
2017	0.775	0.650	0.754	0.707	0.997	高水平耦合	0.840	良好协调发展
2018	0.808	0.810	0.511	0.763	0.978	高水平耦合	0.864	良好协调发展
2019	0.771	0.550	0.279	0.580	0.920	高水平耦合	0.731	中级协调发展
2020	0.969	0.664	0.221	0.696	0.845	高水平耦合	0.767	中级协调发展

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