天津市近岸海域水质变化趋势分析及水质目标研究

许自舟; 李亚芳; 程嘉熠; 吉志新; 张晓霞; 林建国

doi:10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20210302

天津市近岸海域水质变化趋势分析及水质目标研究

doi: 10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20210302

许自舟^{1, 2,},
李亚芳²,
程嘉熠²,
吉志新²,
张晓霞³,
林建国^1, ,

1.
大连海事大学环境科学与工程学院
2.
国家海洋环境监测中心
3.
中国环境科学研究院

基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目（2019YFC1407700, 2018YFC1407603）；天津市科技兴海项目（KJXH2013-17）

详细信息

作者简介:
许自舟(1977—)，男，博士，主要研究方向为环境规划与管理，zzxu@nmemc.org.cn

通讯作者:
林建国（1960—），男，教授，主要研究方向为海洋环境污染与修复，ljglin@dlmu.edu.cn

中图分类号: X55
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-07-05

Trends analysis and targets study of the water quality in Tianjin coastal waters

1.
College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Dalian Maritime University
2.
National Marine Environmental Monitoring Center
3.
Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences

摘要

摘要:
掌握海域水质变化趋势、制定科学合理的水质目标，有助于精准实施重点海域排污总量控制，制定有效的污染物管控政策。利用广义加性模型（GAM），基于2007—2018年天津市近岸海域营养盐浓度及降水量数据，建立水质变化趋势分析模型和水质目标确定方法，在评估天津市近岸海域12个监测站位无机氮和活性磷酸盐浓度变化趋势的基础上，提出天津市近岸海域水质控制目标，并分析水质目标的合理性和可达性。结果表明：2013—2018年与2007—2012年相比，天津市近岸海域无机氮浓度总体呈下降趋势，下降比例为13.19%，95%的置信区间为−30.37%～3.96%；活性磷酸盐浓度总体呈上升趋势，上升比例为7.01%，95%的置信区间为−11.43%～25.45%，尚未恢复到2007—2012年的平均水平；提出2025年天津市近岸海域无机氮、活性磷酸盐二者综合优良水质比例达到75%的控制目标；将天津市近岸海域划分成7个区域，建议据此实施海域水质分区管理，进一步加强农业面源污染防治，强化流域上下游协同治理和省际水污染联防联治，持续改善天津市近岸海域水质。
- 水质目标 /
- 广义加性模型 /
- 趋势分析 /
- 营养盐 /
- 天津市近岸海域
Abstract:
Mastering the seawater quality variation trends and formulating scientific and reasonable water quality targets are helpful to the accurate implementation of the total amount control of pollutant discharge in key sea areas and formulate effective pollutant control policies. The water quality variation trends analysis model and the water quality target determination method were established by using the Generalized Additive Models (GAM), based on the nutrient concentration and precipitation data of Tianjin coastal waters for the 2007-2018 periods. The water quality targets of Tianjin coastal waters were put forward on the basis of evaluating the variation trend of inorganic nitrogen and reactive phosphate concentrations at 12 stations in Tianjin coastal waters, and the rationality and accessibility of the water quality targets were analyzed. The results showed that the concentration of inorganic nitrogen in the coastal waters of Tianjin generally showed a downward trend, with a decreasing ratio of 13.19% and a 95% confidence interval ranging from −30.37% to 3.96% in 2013-2018, compared with 2007-2012. The concentration of reactive phosphorus generally showed an upward trend, with an upward ratio of 7.01% and a 95% confidence interval ranging from −11.43% to 25.45%, which had not recovered to the average level from 2007 to 2012. It was proposed that the proportion of Grade Ⅰ-Ⅱ water quality of inorganic nitrogen and reactive phosphorus in Tianjin coastal waters would reach 75% in 2025. It was suggested to implement water quality zoning management, and the Tianjin coastal waters were divided into seven zones. Other measures such as further strengthening the prevention and control of agricultural non-point sources pollution, enhancing the upstream and downstream collaborative governance and inter provincial joint prevention and treatment of water pollution were also proposed to continually improve the water quality of the coastal waters of Tianjin.
- water quality target /
- generalized additive model /
- trend analysis /
- nutrient /
- Tianjin coastal waters

HTML全文

图 1 研究区及监测站位分布

Figure 1. Study area and monitoring stations distribution

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图 2 水质目标确定流程

Figure 2. Water quality target determination process

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图 3 2007—2018年无机氮、活性磷酸盐浓度变化趋势

注：绿色三角形表示P≤0.05（显著）；黄色三角形表示0.05<P≤0.25（可能）；红色三角形表示P>0.25（不确定）。

Figure 3. Variation of concentration of inorganic nitrogen and reactive phosphorus in 2007-2018

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图 4 2007—2018年各监测站位无机氮模型模拟浓度随时间变化趋势

Figure 4. Variation of simulated concentration of inorganic nitrogen with time at each monitoring station in 2007-2018

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图 5 2007—2018年各监测站位活性磷酸盐模拟浓度时间变化趋势

Figure 5. Variation of simulated concentration of reactive phosphorus with time at each monitoring station in 2007-2018

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图 6 2025年天津市近岸海域水质目标空间分布

Figure 6. Spatial distribution of water quality targets in Tianjin's coastal waters in 2025

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图 7 天津市海洋功能区划及近岸海域环境功能区划要求的水质目标

Figure 7. Water quality targets required by Tianjin marine functional zoning and coastal marine environmental functional division

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图 8 不同时间段无机氮、活性磷酸盐浓度变化率

注：浓度变化率是本阶段相较上阶段浓度的变化，如2011—2015年与2006—2010年相比，无机氮、活性磷酸盐平均浓度变化百分比。

Figure 8. Change percentage of inorganic nitrogen and active phosphate concentration in different time periods

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图 9 天津市近岸海域水质分区管控

Figure 9. Zoning management map of water quality in the coastal waters of Tianjin

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表 1 天津市近岸海域水质控制区分级

Table 1. Classification of water quality control areas in the coastal waters of Tianjin

控制区等级	分级原则
优先控制区	未来5年水质呈恶化趋势，且水质预测均值超出二类水质标准（“超二类”）
重点控制区	未来5年水质呈向好趋势，但前5年水质均值为“超二类”；或未来5年水质呈恶化趋势，且水质预测均值为二类水质
一般控制区	未来5年水质呈向好趋势，前5年水质均值为二类水质，且稳定；或未来5年水质呈向好趋势，前5年水质均值为一类水质，但其中至少1年出现“超二类”水质；或未来5年水质呈恶化趋势，但水质预测均值为一类水质
维持现状区	前5年水质优良、稳定，且未来5年水质呈向好趋势

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表 2 模型模拟及验证结果

Table 2. Model simulation and verification results

监测站位	无机氮			活性磷酸盐
监测站位	R² _Adj	DE	2019—2020年误差均值/%	R² _Adj	DE	2019—2020年误差均值/%
B038	0.57	0.61	24.36	0.89	0.93	−6.41
B039	0.57	0.61	49.21	0.97	0.99	71.40
B040	0.78	0.80	19.19	0.66	0.72	−8.22
B041	0.80	0.87	7.16	0.66	0.80	−76.17
B042	0.48	0.61	40.20	0.94	0.97	−79.03
B043	0.94	0.97	13.97	0.49	0.59	102.93
B044	0.71	0.80	61.17	0.49	0.58	38.86
B045	0.86	0.91	—	0.81	0.89	—
B078	0.68	0.73	−18.30	0.93	0.97	174.63
B410	0.82	0.89	51.29	0.92	0.98	67.28
B411	0.83	0.89	69.79	0.92	0.96	−39.90
B416	0.50	0.63	127.73	0.82	0.90	−10.88
平均值	0.71	0.78	40.52	0.79	0.86	21.32
注：—表示无实测数据。

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表 3 2025年天津市近岸海域监测站位水质目标及控制等级

Table 3. Results of water quality objectives and control classification in Tianjin's coastal waters in 2025 mg/L　

监测站位	无机氮浓度				活性磷酸盐浓度
监测站位	2016—2020年实测均值	2021—2025年预测均值	2025年目标值	控制区等级	2016—2020年实测均值	2021—2025年预测均值	2025年目标值	控制区等级
B038	0.25	0.20	0.20	一般	0.015	0.006	0.015	一般
B039	0.34	0.28	0.28	重点	0.013	0.020	0.013	重点
B040	0.30	0.21	0.21	一般	0.008	0.002	0.008	现状
B041	0.30	0.22	0.22	重点	0.011	<0.001	0.011	现状
B042	0.27	0.29	0.27	重点	0.005	<0.001	0.005	现状
B043	0.28	0.21	0.21	一般	0.008	0.004	0.008	现状
B044	0.25	0.22	0.22	重点	0.010	0.005	0.010	现状
B045	0.46	0.68	0.46	优先	0.007	0.001	0.007	现状
B078	0.22	0.13	0.20	现状	0.009	0.002	0.009	现状
B410	0.37	0.33	0.33	重点	0.005	0.027	0.005	重点
B411	0.34	0.38	0.34	优先	0.005	0.001	0.005	现状
B416	0.26	0.40	0.26	优先	0.011	<0.001	0.011	现状
平均值	0.30	0.30	0.27		0.009	0.006	0.009
注：现状指维持现状区；一般指一般控制区；重点指重点控制区；优先指优先控制区。

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表 4 国外典型海域综合治理水质改善效果

Table 4. Water quality improvement effect of typical foreign regions with comprehensive management

典型海域	综合治理年份	海域水质改善程度
日本东京湾^[40]	1989—2015	无机氮浓度降低35%，活性磷酸盐浓度降低40%
日本濑户内海^[41]	1973—2007	无机氮浓度降低56%，活性磷酸盐浓度降低35%
欧洲波罗的海^[42-44]	1990—2015	无机氮浓度降低40%，活性磷酸盐浓度降低33%
美国切萨皮克湾^[9,31]	1985—2015	总氮浓度降低30%，总磷浓度降低40%

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