Dynamic Analysis on Ecological Carrying Capacity of Dantu District, Zhenjiang City in 2000-2010

The traditional ecological footprint model only considers the demand of human to resources and the basic function of land and neglects the service function of land ecosystem. The ecosystem service function theory was referred to improve the ecological footprint model, and the value equivalent factor of ecosystem service function introduced in the calculation of equilibrium factor and yield factor in the model, so as to embody the integrity of the ecosystem. The improved model was used to calculate the ecological footprint per capita, the ecological carrying capacity per capita and the ecological deficit per capita of Dantu district from 2000 to 2010 based on its statistic data, and to analyse the ecological footprint per unit GDP. Results showed that the ecological footprint per capita of the district was increased from 6.870 2 hm² in 2000 to 7.576 7 hm² in 2010, the ecological carrying capacity per capita was decreased from 5.296 8 hm² in 2000 to 4.998 3 hm² in 2010. There existed ecological deficit and it increased from 1.573 4 hm² in 2000 to 2.578 3 hm² in 2010, which meant the regional developmental pattern was unsustainable. Besides, according to the GM(1,1) model, it was predicted that the ecological footprint per capita would expand to 8.117 0 hm² in 2015 and 11.019 3 hm² in 2020, the ecological deficit per capita would be 4.671 4 hm² in 2015 and 7.567 5 hm² in 2020, the ecological footprint per ten thousands Yuan GDP would be 0.702 3 hm² in 2015 and 0.336 2 hm² in 2020. Finally, the sustainable development measures were proposed from the viewpoint of ecological capacity and combined with the actual situation of Dantu district.