Research on Scenario Analysis Based Multi-objective Programming for Socio-economic Development in Urban Lake Basins

Taking Dongchang Lake Basin in Shandong Province as an example, selecting the water indicators of production, living and ecology as key points of entry, the society-economy-environment coordination fuzzy chance constrained multi-objective programming model was established to maximize the benefits of the society, economy and ecological environment. Three different development scenarios, i.e. resources and environment constrained scheme, socio-economic development constrained scheme and coordination development scheme, were set on the bases of inertia scenario and planning scenario with the fuzzy weights of objective function and the chance constrained analysis of sewage scale. Optimized results of all the schemes in the planning year were analyzed and, combined with current situation and planning requirements for the river basin, the best socio-economic development mode and pollution control countermeasures of given. Finally, the socio-economic development mode and adjustment direction of industrial structure in the lake basin in 2008-2030 were suggested.