Simulation of Municipal Solid Waste Resource Recovery Based on System Dynamics Model: The Case of Dalian

Since the beginning of reform and opening in 1978, with the development of urbanization and the improvement of people's living level, the municipal solid waste (MSW) generation has increased rapidly in China, which has seriously affected the construction of ecological civilization in the cities. With Dalian city as an example, the system dynamics method was used to establish the system dynamic simulation model for MSW resource recovery, and the scenarios analysis was accordingly performed. The treatment amounts of various methods, the volumes and life of MSW landfill sites in Dalian city under two different schemes, and the power generation by MSW incineration were projected. The results show that the fourth phase of Maoyingzi MSW Landfill in Dalian will be filled by the end of 2016. Therefore, it is imperative to put waste incineration and power generation as the main way of resource recovery, by increasing investment in waste incineration and constructing more MSW incinerators.