山东省碳减排系统仿真及政策优化研究

李艳红

doi:10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20190063

山东省碳减排系统仿真及政策优化研究

doi: 10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20190063

李艳红

华北电力大学(保定)经济管理系

详细信息

作者简介:
李艳红(1979—),女,讲师,主要从事低碳经济计量模型应用研究, redlyh@126.com

中图分类号: X192
计量
- 文章访问数: 401
- HTML全文浏览量: 109
- PDF下载量: 162
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2019-04-23
- 刊出日期: 2020-01-20

System simulation and policy optimization of carbon emission reduction in Shandong Province

LI Yanhong

Department of Economic Management, North China Electric Power University(Baoding)

摘要

摘要: 为考察减排政策对能源消耗及碳排放的影响,以经济、能源、人口和环境要素构建山东省能源消耗碳排放系统仿真模型。在验证模型有效性的基础上,进行单维度情景与多维度综合情景仿真模拟。结果显示:在设定情景参数下,产业结构、科技投入与能源结构调整能够有效促进碳减排,但减排效果不同,其中科技投入如果表现为清洁技术投入,则更有利于碳减排目标的实现;单因素调整的减排效果有一定的局限性,多因素综合模拟时,当条件满足第二产业固定资产投资比例为49.43%,第三产业投资比例达到46.94%,科技投入比例为2.70%,三次产业能源消耗结构比为74.87%:15.27%:9.86%,可接近实现山东省“十三五”低碳经济发展目标。
- 碳排放 /
- 仿真模拟 /
- 低碳经济 /
- 山东省
Abstract: In order to investigate the influence of emission reduction policy on energy consumption and carbon emission, a system simulation model of energy consumption carbon emission in Shandong Province was constructed from the aspects of economy, energy, population and environment. On the basis of validating the model, the one-dimensional scenario and multi-dimensional comprehensive scenario simulations were carried out. The results showed that under the set scenario parameters, the adjustment of industrial structure, science and technology investment and energy structure could effectively promote carbon emission reduction, but the effects of emission reduction were different. If science and technology investment was represented by cleaner technology investment, it was more conducive to the realization of carbon emission reduction goals. The single factor adjustment had certain limitations in the emission reduction effect, while the multi-factor comprehensive simulation was close to achieve low carbon economic development targets in Shandong Province of the 13 ^th five year plan, with the second and third industry investment propertion in fixed assets investment of 49.43% and 46.94% respectively, the technology investment ratio of 2.70%, and the the energy consumption ratio of 74.87%:15.27%:9.86%.
- carbon emission /
- simulation /
- low-carbon economy /
- Shandong Province

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参考文献(20)

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