基于投资乘数的绿色投资与经济增长实证研究

何磊; 黄翔; 沈鹏; 刘晓宇; 曹宝

doi:10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.2019.06.170

基于投资乘数的绿色投资与经济增长实证研究

doi: 10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.2019.06.170

中国环境科学研究院,北京 100012

详细信息

作者简介:
何磊(1977—),男,工程师,主要从事环境政策、战略环评、规划环评政策研究,helei@craes.org.cn

通讯作者:
曹宝 E-mail: cbao3000@163.com

中图分类号: X196
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2019-01-02
- 刊出日期: 2019-07-20

An empirical study on green investment and economic growth based on investment multipliers

Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China

More Information

Corresponding author: Bao CAO E-mail: cbao3000@163.com

摘要

摘要: 投资乘数作为宏观经济政策评价的重要工具之一,在理论和实证中均得到了较为广泛的应用。基于传统投资乘数没有反映经济发展的环境成本,不利于引导绿色经济发展的现状,提出了绿色投资乘数的概念和计算模型,并以太湖流域为例计算了2006—2014年凯恩斯四部门投资乘数(K_S)、扩展的投资乘数(K_Z)和绿色投资乘数(K_E),对3类投资乘数的变化及其影响参数进行了分析。结果表明:2006—2014年太湖流域K_S呈轻微波动,无明显增长或下降趋势,不同年份K_S均略大于1,意味着投资对经济有一定的拉动作用但不是很大;不同年份K_Z均大于2,K_E大多大于3,尤其是K_E多年平均值高于K_Z 17.3个百分点,表明绿色投资对经济的拉动作用明显;2006—2010年K_E呈增加趋势,2010年后呈下降趋势,表明2010年后传统投资对经济的拉动作用已显乏力。K_E可以把投资、经济增长、环境成本三者有机联系起来,有助于引导绿色发展,建议加大绿色投资支持力度以引领新一轮的经济增长。
- 投资乘数 /
- 经济增长 /
- 绿色投资 /
- 太湖流域
Abstract: As one of the important tools of macro-economic policy evaluation, the investment multiplier has been widely applied in both theory and empirical evidence. However traditional investment multiplier does not reflect the environmental cost of economic development, which is not conducive to guiding the development of green economy. The concept and calculation model of green investment multiplier were proposed and Taihu Lake Basin was taken as an example to test the Keynesian four-sector investment multiplier (K_S), expanded investment multiplier (K_Z) and green investment multiplier (K_E) from 2006 to 2014. By comparing and analyzing their influencing parameters of the three types of investment multiplier, it revealed that K_S showed a light dynamic change from 2006 to 2014,with no obvious growth or downward trend, and the value of K_S was slightly greater than 1 which meant that it had a certain pulling effect on the economy, but not very large. The value of multipliers K_Z was greater than 2 and that of K_E mostly greater than 3, and especially the multi-year average value of K_E was 17.3 percentage points higher than that of K_S, indicating that the green investment had a significant pulling effect on the economy. K_E showed an increasing trend from 2006 to 2010, however, from year 2010, this trend had changed, with a downward trend of K_E. This indicated that the pulling effect of traditional investment on the economy had become weak after 2010. Green investment multiplier can organically link investment, economic growth and environmental costs, and help guide green development. Therefore, it is necessary to increase green investment support to lead a new round of economic growth.
- investment multiplier /
- economic growth /
- green investment /
- Taihu Lake Basin

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